SYDNEY, April 27, 2026, 05:11 AEST
- Origin Energy finished the day 2.57% higher at A$12.77, beating the softer S&P/ASX 200.
- All eyes now turn to the company’s April 28 Sydney investor day, where Kraken Technologies—the software asset pegged at $8.65 billion late last year—takes center stage.
- Now, the question is if those beefier power retail margins will be enough to counter weaker gas profits and ongoing coal-transition risks.
Origin Energy Limited shares closed at A$12.77, up 2.57% in the latest session—even as the S&P/ASX 200 edged down 0.08%. That jump throws a fresh spotlight on the Australian utility ahead of its Sydney investor day, where Kraken Technologies—the energy software arm now playing a bigger role in the Origin story—will be front and center.
This time, Kraken is front and center. Back in February, Origin flagged an April 28 Kraken Investor Day in Sydney in its investor materials, and its investor page puts Kraken CEO Amir Orad as the presenter.
Kraken landed an $8.65 billion valuation following its initial share sale late last year, according to Bloomberg, which cited Origin via Energy Connects. After raising equity and splitting off from Octopus Energy, Origin expects to retain a 22.7% economic stake in Kraken, Reuters reported in December.
Shares got a lift along with the broader utility sector. According to a market wrap, Origin, AGL Energy, and Meridian Energy were out front among Australian utilities, while oil producers advanced too—investors keeping a close eye on Middle East supply risks.
Origin holds the title as Australia’s largest retailer of electricity and gas by customer count, according to Reuters. This year, its domestic power arm has led the way on earnings. Back in February, Origin bumped up its full-year Energy Markets underlying EBITDA outlook to a range of A$1.55 billion to A$1.75 billion, up from the previous A$1.40 billion to A$1.70 billion band. EBITDA—earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation—serves as a rough gauge of operating profit.
The numbers tell the story: Origin’s Energy Markets arm posted A$860 million in operating earnings for the half-year through Dec. 31—a 17% jump. But things looked rougher over in integrated gas, where profits, hurt by lower prices and production, slid more than 31%. Australia Pacific LNG and trading sit inside that segment.
Origin can now pitch more than its energy assets, thanks to Kraken. The software platform, valued by Bloomberg’s report, gives utilities tools for billing, customer service and managing demand shifts as homes pick up solar panels, batteries, EVs and heat pumps.
The coal issue remains unresolved. Back in January, Origin announced plans to keep all four units at its 2,880-megawatt Eraring coal-fired power station in New South Wales online until April 2029, pushing back the previously scheduled August 2027 closure. CEO Frank Calabria said the move “provides more time” for renewables, storage, and transmission projects to come online. Reuters
David Tuckwell, chief investment officer at ETF Shares, said Eraring’s extension hands Origin “more certainty and stability” in its domestic power segment. That’s made it easier for investors to justify higher prices for the shares, despite the ongoing messiness of Australia’s energy transition. Reuters
The risks here stand out. Should wholesale power margins drop, gas prices slide further, or Eraring runs into reliability trouble without significant overhaul investment, Origin may see its earnings buffer shrink. Delays in splitting off Kraken—or if investors assign it a lower value—would weaken the software-growth case, right as the market looks for clearer signals.
Right now, investors see two clear angles: Origin’s cash-spinning Australian retail and generation operation, and its tech exposure, which some in the market may start to price more like a software play. The Kraken briefing on April 28 will likely signal just how aggressively Origin plans to sell that second narrative.
