SYDNEY, April 27, 2026, 05:11 AEST
- Origin Energy closed the latest ASX session up 2.57% at A$12.77, outperforming a weaker S&P/ASX 200.
- Investors are looking to the company’s April 28 Sydney investor day on Kraken Technologies, a software asset valued late last year at $8.65 billion.
- The stock’s next test is whether stronger power retail margins can offset softer gas earnings and coal-transition risks.
Origin Energy Limited heads into the new trading week with its shares at A$12.77 after a 2.57% gain in the latest ASX session, a standout move on a day when the S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.08%. The move puts fresh attention on the Australian utility just before a Sydney investor day focused on Kraken Technologies, the energy software platform that has become a larger part of the Origin investment case.
That matters now because Kraken is no longer a side story. Origin’s February investor material listed a Kraken Investor Day for April 28 in Sydney, while the company’s investor page says the event will be presented by Kraken CEO Amir Orad.
Kraken was valued at $8.65 billion after its first share sale late last year, Bloomberg reported via Energy Connects, citing Origin. Origin said it would keep a 22.7% economic interest in Kraken after the equity raising and separation from Octopus Energy, Reuters reported in December.
The share move also came with a broader utility bid. A market wrap said Origin, AGL Energy and Meridian Energy led gains in Australian utility stocks, while oil producers also rose as investors weighed supply worries tied to the Middle East.
Origin is Australia’s largest electricity and gas retailer by customer accounts, Reuters reported, and its domestic power business has been the cleaner part of the earnings story this year. In February, the company raised its full-year Energy Markets underlying EBITDA forecast to A$1.55 billion-A$1.75 billion, from A$1.40 billion-A$1.70 billion. EBITDA means earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, a rough measure of operating profit.
The same update showed why the market is selective. Origin’s Energy Markets unit reported A$860 million of operating earnings for the six months to Dec. 31, up 17%, but its integrated gas division, which includes Australia Pacific LNG and trading, fell more than 31% on weaker prices and lower production.
Kraken gives Origin another line to sell investors: software growth, not just power bills and gas prices. The platform helps utilities handle billing, customer service and flexible power demand as households add solar panels, batteries, electric vehicles and heat pumps, according to Bloomberg’s report on the valuation.
There is still the coal question. Origin said in January it would keep all four units of its 2,880-megawatt Eraring coal-fired power station in New South Wales running until April 2029, rather than closing the plant in August 2027. CEO Frank Calabria said the extension “provides more time” for renewables, storage and transmission projects to be delivered. Reuters
David Tuckwell, chief investment officer at ETF Shares, wrote that Eraring’s extension gave Origin “more certainty and stability” in its domestic power business. That helps explain why investors have been more willing to pay up for the stock, even as Australia’s energy transition remains uneven. Reuters
But the risks are plain enough. If wholesale power margins cool, gas prices weaken further, or Eraring suffers reliability problems without major overhaul spending, Origin’s earnings cushion could narrow. A slower Kraken separation or a lower read-through valuation would also dent the software-growth argument just as investors are preparing for more detail.
For now, the company has two tracks in front of the market: a cash-generating Australian retail and generation business, and a technology stake that investors may try to value more like software. The April 28 Kraken briefing should show how hard Origin wants to push the second story.
