New York, March 2, 2026, 12:55 EST — Regular session.
Spot silver, the cash price for immediate delivery, fell 6.6% to $87.64 an ounce by 11:11 a.m. ET on Monday, after touching its highest since Jan. 30. Gold was little changed near $5,284 as the U.S. dollar index — a gauge of the greenback against major peers — jumped more than 1%, and traders took profit after the early spike. “Right now, the market is attempting to figure out whether these attacks are going to be followed up over the next several weeks,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. 1
Weekend strikes against Iran jolted markets, lifting oil and the dollar and dragging on equities in Europe and the United States. Brent crude jumped 8.07% to $78.74 a barrel and U.S. crude gained 6.86% to $71.62, rekindling worries that energy costs could bleed into inflation. 2
In Washington, the ISM manufacturing PMI held above 50, but its prices-paid index surged to 70.5, the highest since late 2022, as tariffs and higher fuel costs fed through supply chains. That mix tends to support the dollar and yields, which can be a headwind for non-yielding metals such as silver. 3
Silver sits awkwardly between gold and copper. It can act as a haven in a crisis, but it also leans on growth because it is used in electronics and other industrial applications.
The metal has been swinging hard since late January. It hit an all-time high of $121.6 on Jan. 29 before stop-loss selling knocked it down more than a quarter the next day; some analysts have since pointed to $60-$70 as a more fundamentally supported zone. “There’s been a massive, massive retail frenzy getting into these markets,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. 4
But the haven story can flip fast. If the conflict cools and the dollar stays firm, silver’s pullback could deepen, especially if volatility forces leveraged traders to cut positions.
Energy is the wild card. Higher oil can raise inflation expectations and push rates higher, which usually weighs on precious metals, even as geopolitical risk keeps a floor under bids.
Some investors also treat silver as a proxy for risk appetite: it tends to catch a bid when growth is strong and funding is easy. Monday’s price action showed how quickly that framework can break when the dollar lurches.
Beyond the Middle East headlines, traders are watching whether U.S. data reinforce the view that inflation is sticky and policy will stay tight. That matters for silver more than most commodities because it trades like a financial asset on days like this.
The next test is the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report — the government’s monthly jobs snapshot — due Friday, March 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET. A firm report could keep the dollar elevated; a softer print would give silver room to stabilise. 5
