New York, March 3, 2026, 07:20 EST
- Oil pushed higher, raising worries about broader supply issues and sending U.S. stock index futures lower.
- Brent pushed past $83 a barrel, with shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dropping off steeply.
- With inflation risks picking up, traders delayed their bets on when the Fed might cut rates next.
Futures on major U.S. stock indexes slipped Tuesday, with energy markets heating up once more as conflict linked to the United States, Israel and Iran continued to disrupt key supply routes. The Nasdaq 100 came under particular strain, dropping more than 2% early in New York, as crude and gas costs pressed higher. 1
Timing is the sticking point for markets. Traders were already hashing out when the Federal Reserve could deliver its next rate cut. Now there’s an energy shock rolling through shipping, fuel, and inflation forecasts. Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz means surging costs—freight, diesel, jet fuel—show up on invoices almost instantly, then hit the data. 2
Brent crude climbed roughly 8% to $83.79 a barrel, peaking at $85.12—the strongest level since July 2024. U.S. WTI hovered near $76.54, having earlier reached a high not seen since June. The moves came as traders zeroed in on Iran’s warnings over Hormuz and a wave of reported outages and disruptions throughout the region. 3
War-risk insurance is getting pulled for ships in the Gulf as marine insurers back away, leaving nearly 150 vessels stuck around Hormuz, ship-tracking data showed. “Each underwriter is invariably increasing rates or in some instances… declining to offer terms right now,” said David Smith, who heads marine at broker McGill and Partners. 4
Freight rates went haywire. Shipping 2 million barrels of crude from the Middle East to China? That benchmark rate shot up to roughly $423,736 a day, according to LSEG. Rates for LNG tankers spiked over 40% in just one session. “There will be very strong competition for any available vessels,” said Fraser Carson, principal analyst for global LNG at Wood Mackenzie. 5
Washington is getting ready to act as fuel costs tick higher. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Energy Secretary Chris Wright are set to unveil measures on Tuesday aimed at easing the sting of rising energy prices for Americans. “Starting tomorrow, you will see us rolling out those phases,” Rubio told reporters. 6
Stocks in the U.S. closed with little change on Monday, whipsawing through the session as traders picked up battered tech shares, while crude prices surged roughly 6% for the day. The Dow slipped 0.15%. The S&P 500 eked out a 0.04% rise. Nasdaq advanced 0.36%, market data from Reuters showed. 7
Markets saw uneven action. Oil’s climb put a bid under energy stocks; Exxon Mobil and Shell both advanced. Travel-related shares, though, slumped—Delta Air Lines dropped along with the sector, pressured by surging jet fuel prices and mounting airspace snags. 8
Physical supply is tightening fast. Qatar, which accounts for about 20% of global LNG, has stopped liquefied natural gas production. Saudi Arabia’s largest domestic refinery is offline, as are multiple Israeli gas fields, according to Reuters. The report also said QatarEnergy planned to invoke force majeure — the contract clause allowing suppliers to halt shipments after unforeseen events. 9
Inflation’s impact is shifting rate forecasts. Traders now see the Fed’s next quarter-point cut coming in September, not July, after U.S. Treasury yields rose and global stock markets slipped across Europe and Asia, Reuters said. 10
Still, traders are focused on the “duration” angle. A swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz—or rapid emergency action—might take the heat out of oil, pulling back on stocks and dialing down rate bets just as quickly.
