Bengaluru, March 3, 2026, 23:03 IST — Market closed.
- India’s stock markets stayed shut on Tuesday for the Holi holiday; trading resumes on Wednesday.
- Nifty 50 and Sensex last closed lower after crude jumped on the widening Middle East conflict.
- Traders are watching oil, the rupee and domestic data when markets reopen.
India’s stock market was closed on Tuesday for the Holi holiday, with the NSE and BSE set to reopen on Wednesday. Ajit Mishra, senior vice president of research at Religare Broking, said the Nifty is near a “support” zone around 24,600 — an area where buyers often step in — and a break could deepen the pullback. 1
The pause follows a sharp Monday slide after the widening Middle East conflict lifted crude prices and pushed investors toward safer assets. The Nifty 50 fell 1.24% to 24,865.70 and the Sensex slid 1.29% to 80,238.85; ONGC and Oil India rose about 0.9% while Reliance Industries dropped 2.6% and Larsen & Toubro sank 5%. Analysts at Bernstein said a prolonged conflict could push the Nifty below 24,500. 2
The rupee also took a hit. It fell 0.5% on Monday to 91.47 per dollar, its weakest in a month, while traders said the Reserve Bank of India likely stepped in to curb the move; one-year forward premiums — the cost of hedging currency risk — jumped as much as 13 basis points, or 0.13 percentage point. Rabobank’s Jane Foley wrote there was “no sign of an obvious off-ramp” for the war. 3
Bond traders are bracing for more volatility when domestic markets reopen. Reuters reported the benchmark 10-year yield is expected to move in a 6.65%-6.75% range this week, and Emkay Global’s Madhavi Arora warned that if tensions persist, elevated oil prices would feed into higher input costs and could hurt macro stability. The next domestic trigger is February services PMI due on Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. 4
Overseas markets didn’t offer much relief. Global stock indexes tumbled on Tuesday and the dollar climbed as investors priced in higher inflation risks tied to the energy shock; Brent crude was up more than 7% at around $83 a barrel. 5
Energy supply headlines added to the nerves. Indian companies cut natural gas supplies to industries by 10% to 30% after Qatar halted LNG production, sources familiar with the matter said, with firms planning spot tenders even as spot prices, freight and insurance costs climbed. 6
New Delhi has tried to lean against the immediate supply panic. The federal oil ministry said it would take all necessary steps to ensure the availability of major petroleum products at affordable rates after meeting company officials to review supplies of crude oil, LPG and other refined products. 7
Emkay also put numbers on what a lasting oil shock could mean: every $10-a-barrel rise in crude could widen India’s current account deficit-to-GDP ratio by 0.5 percentage point, lift retail inflation by about 0.35 percentage point and trim growth by roughly 0.15 to 0.20 percentage point. Barclays flagged a $100-a-barrel risk if disruption persists, Reuters’ India File reported. 8
But the story can still turn quickly. A cooling of hostilities — or even just a steadier flow through key shipping routes — would likely take some pressure off oil and the rupee, and give rate-cut hopes room to breathe again. A longer disruption does the opposite, and it usually hits fuel-heavy pockets of the market first.
When trading resumes on Wednesday, investors will be watching crude prices, the rupee and early moves in energy and bank stocks, with the services PMI print in the morning as the first domestic data point to test sentiment.
