NEW YORK, March 6, 2026, 07:36 EST
Stock futures in the U.S. slipped early Friday, with oil climbing again as traders braced for the monthly jobs report—capping a volatile stretch marked by Middle East conflict and surging energy costs. As of 5:14 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis had dropped 0.27%, S&P 500 E-minis were off 0.34%, and Nasdaq 100 E-minis lost 0.41%. 1
With traders weighing up whether stubbornly strong jobs data and pricier oil will force the Federal Reserve to delay its next rate cut, the pressure is on. LSEG figures reported by Reuters point to a shift in expectations—a quarter-point cut is now seen in October, pushed back from July last month, as upbeat economic reports and costlier crude fuel inflation concerns. 2
Reuters surveyed economists who are calling for a 59,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls for February, a step down from January’s 130,000 gain. Expectations are that the unemployment rate sticks at 4.3%. The numbers land at 8:30 a.m. ET from the Labor Department. 3
Stocks wrapped up Thursday lower. The Dow dropped 1.61%, while the S&P 500 shed 0.56% and the Nasdaq pulled back 0.26%. Oil prices jumped, with investors dialing down expectations for a policy shift. 4
Crude was still driving the action. Brent pushed up 3.45% to $88.36 a barrel as of 1135 GMT, staring down a hefty weekly gain—almost 22%. U.S. crude, meanwhile, jumped 4.86% to $84.95, putting it on pace for a near-27% surge. Both are clocking their biggest weekly climbs since 2020. Qatar’s energy minister cautioned that if Gulf exports are halted, oil could spike to $150 a barrel. 5
Early on, the market fractured. Shares in American Airlines and Delta Air Lines slipped roughly 1% apiece in premarket moves. Occidental Petroleum, though, added 2%. Traders trimmed exposure to AI-chip stocks ahead of the report. 2
“Look at oil today,” said Michael Antonelli, market strategist at Baird Private Wealth Management, zeroing in on what he called the market’s main pressure point after Thursday’s selloff. Oil’s steering the conversation around inflation and where rates might head next, according to Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. PNC chief economist Gus Faucher added the labor market’s holding up, but he flagged growing uncertainty. 4
Still, U.S. stocks have outperformed their European and Asian counterparts this week. According to Reuters, the Nasdaq looked set to notch a modest weekly advance, buoyed by recovering tech shares and expectations that the U.S.—a net oil exporter—faces less risk from an energy shock than more import-reliant countries. 2
Traders face a clear risk here. If payrolls surprise to the upside while crude keeps pushing higher, the squeeze on airlines, transports and other sectors sensitive to rates will only tighten, as chances for quick Fed relief fade further. On the other hand, a weaker jobs print—or if oil takes a breather—could take some of that pressure off. Heading into the open, though, neither scenario looked like a lock. 2
Once payrolls land, attention shifts fast to next Wednesday’s February CPI report—another hurdle for inflation watchers in a market that’s been jolting on each fresh oil story. 6
