Bangkok, March 7, 2026, 14:44 ICT
Thailand’s benchmark SET index ended Friday at 1,410.37, down 0.49% on the day and about 7.7% from last Friday’s 1,528.26 close, capping a rough four-session week for Thai stocks as the Middle East oil shock hit risk appetite. Trading value was 62.9 billion baht. 1
The retreat matters because Thailand had been one of the regional markets still attracting overseas money. Reuters, citing LSEG data, said Thailand drew $1.75 billion of foreign inflows in February, but the Stock Exchange of Thailand’s Friday summary showed foreigners sold a net 6.63 billion baht. 2
The reversal came just after the Bank of Thailand cut its policy rate to 1.0% — the lowest in more than three years — on Feb. 25 and as domestic politics looked calmer after the election commission certified 499 of 500 seats on March 4, clearing the way for parliament to convene and a new government to begin work in April. After the rate move, Assistant Governor Don Nakornthab said the central bank was “ready to reduce rates” again if the outlook changed significantly, but oil prices surged before investors could test that support. 3
Thailand is especially exposed to an energy squeeze. DBS economist Radhika Rao said Thailand’s oil trade balance was among the “most adverse” in ASEAN-6 and that higher oil costs tend to feed into Thai prices quickly, while ING analysts flagged Thailand among the emerging markets most exposed if crude stays high. 4
Trading through the week was jagged. Historical data showed the SET fell 4.04% on March 2, was closed on March 3 for Makha Bucha Day, slumped 5.58% on March 4, rebounded 2.36% on March 5 and slipped again on Friday. 5
On March 4, Reuters said Thailand led emerging-market losses with a 7.7% intraday slump, while Japan’s Nikkei fell 3.7% and Taiwan’s benchmark lost 3.6%. Dat Tong, senior financial markets strategist at Exness, said “Asian markets may remain under pressure” as investors watch the Middle East conflict. 6
The stress was already reaching Thai industry. Reuters reported on Friday that Rayong Olefins, a unit of Siam Cement Group, declared force majeure — a contract disruption clause — because of the Middle East conflict. 7
Even after the selloff, the SET is still up 11.96% this year, exchange data showed. That means the week hurt, but it did not fully erase gains built after the election result and the rate cut. 8
The main uncertainty now is oil and shipping. Goldman Sachs warned on Friday that crude could top $100 a barrel next week if flows through the Strait of Hormuz do not normalize, after Brent climbed above $90 and nearly 30% over the past week; if that happens, Thursday’s rebound may look more like a pause than a floor. 9
