SYDNEY, March 23, 2026, 04:47 AEDT
Santos drew attention heading into the new week, finishing down 0.5% at A$7.98 on Friday, March 20. Investors are digesting news that Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has reportedly instructed Treasury to look at a tax targeting windfall gas profits, right as energy prices are on the move again.
The timing is key here. Santos is plugged into Australia’s LNG export network, so any attempt to grab a bigger slice of the action would hit just as export values are surging—thanks to the Middle East conflict and the Strait of Hormuz shutdown. LNG exports out of Australia pulled in A$65 billion last year, according to Reuters. Since the U.S. and Israel struck Iran in February, Asia spot LNG prices have shot up, now sitting at three-year highs—double what they were.
Santos kicked off trading at A$8.17 on March 20, sliding to around A$7.91 during the session before settling at A$7.98, according to Reuters market data. The sector saw a split performance as policy jitters tangled with commodity tailwinds: Woodside Energy finished up 1.0% at A$34.04, Origin Energy advanced 2.1% to A$12.01, while Beach Energy slipped 1.2% to A$1.27.
The Petroleum Resources Rent Tax—Australia’s tax on offshore oil and gas profits—has surfaced once again ahead of May’s federal budget. Energy Minister Chris Bowen refused to discuss cabinet talks. Industry wasn’t quiet, though; Australian Energy Producers chief executive Samantha McCulloch argued that any retrospective levy would hit at the “worst possible time,” piling more uncertainty onto the sector. Reuters
The spike in crude came hard and fast. Brent closed out Friday at $112.19 per barrel, up 3.26%—levels last seen in July 2022. IG analyst Tony Sycamore flagged President Donald Trump’s latest warning to Iran as a “ticking time bomb” for markets. Over at Energy Aspects, founder Amrita Sen saw little hope for a de-escalation, saying the move means oil prices are heading higher. Reuters
Santos sits at the intersection of buoyant prices and heightened policy risk. Back in January, the company projected a production jump of up to 30% for 2026, crediting new supply from Barossa gas to Darwin LNG and progress at the Pikka oil project in Alaska. CEO Kevin Gallagher put the combined boost from both projects at roughly 25% to 30% higher output by 2027 versus 2024. Citi’s Tom Wallington, at the time, pointed out that the debut Darwin LNG cargo might “allay investor concerns” around any looming commissioning snags. Reuters
Management has been pushing harder on costs. Earlier this month, Santos and Beach signed off on the A$357 million Moomba Central Optimisation project. According to the company, that’s expected to rack up over A$600 million in capital and operating savings across the lifetime of the Cooper Basin’s central fields. In February, Santos missed its annual profit target and responded with plans to shed roughly 10% of its workforce, also announcing a review of its Australian integrated oil and gas portfolio. Dale Koenders at Barrenjoey argued the review drew attention to a resource base mostly overlooked by the market. Jarden noted that trimming jobs should support the operating cost side.
Here’s the wrinkle: both sides of the Santos trade are in play simultaneously. Canberra pulling back from a windfall levy would give the stock space to ride higher oil and LNG prices, plus Barossa-Pikka coming online. But if the government doubles down on the tax, or if project delivery stumbles yet again, that cash-flow bump investors have been betting on could shrink fast.
