HOUSTON, May 7, 2026, 17:02 CDT
- The IEA said the Iran war has removed about 120 billion cubic metres of global LNG supply from 2026-2030 balances.
- NextDecade says it will charter more vessels for Rio Grande LNG as shipping risk moves back toward long-term contracts.
- U.S. exporters are drawing more attention as Europe and Asia compete for flexible cargoes.
NextDecade is preparing to charter more liquefied natural gas carriers as the Middle East conflict reshapes LNG trade and pushes exporters to secure ships for longer. LNG, or liquefied natural gas, is gas chilled into liquid form so it can move by tanker.
The move matters now because the International Energy Agency said Thursday that the Iran war has already cut about 120 billion cubic metres, or bcm, of global LNG supply over the 2026-2030 period. IEA analyst Gergely Molnar told the Budapest LNG Summit that tighter market conditions could last longer than previously expected.
Molnar said the crisis had cut LNG supply by about 15%, while attacks had knocked out 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity. The IEA also said European Union storage was about 30% below its five-year average and would need an extra 10 bcm of gas to meet its 90% winter-fill target.
That is turning shipping from a back-office cost into a strategic risk. Peter Fitzpatrick, NextDecade’s vice president of shipping, said companies had grown comfortable hiring LNG vessels in the spot market when fuel supply was long, but that the market was now adjusting to higher volatility. “The long-term impact” will be more shipping that lets companies “manage your own risk,” he said at Lloyd’s Register’s Global LNG Forum in Houston. Reuters
NextDecade Chief Executive Matt Schatzman said the company already has five vessels under charter, including three long-term Dynagas newbuilds tied to its Guangdong Energy delivered-ex-ship deal. Delivered-ex-ship means the seller handles transport and delivers the cargo to the buyer’s port, rather than handing it over at the export terminal.
Schatzman said NextDecade expects to add short-term ships for Phase 1 volumes above firm sales and may seek longer-term capacity for Trains 4 and 5, where not all firm capacity has been sold. “But we will be chartering more ships, simply put,” he said. LNG Prime
The company is building Rio Grande LNG near Brownsville, Texas. Trains 1 through 5 are under construction with expected production capacity of about 30 million tonnes per annum, or mtpa; NextDecade said Train 1 is in early electrical commissioning, with first gas expected in the second half of 2026 and first LNG production in the first half of 2027.
Expansion is also in play. NextDecade said it expects to file a full Federal Energy Regulatory Commission application for Train 6 before the end of the second quarter. Schatzman said a permit could arrive as early as mid-2027, setting up a final investment decision — the formal go-ahead — in the second half of 2027 if the company commercializes and finances the train.
U.S. suppliers are gaining leverage from the squeeze. U.S. LNG exports to Asia rose sharply in April as Middle East supply fell, while Europe still took nearly 56% of U.S. volumes that month, LSEG ship-tracking data cited by Reuters showed.
The competitive field is also moving. Cheniere Energy, the largest U.S. LNG producer, said Middle East disruptions were tightening global LNG markets and increasing competition for flexible U.S. cargoes. Golden Pass, a QatarEnergy and Exxon Mobil venture, shipped its first LNG cargo in April, while the U.S. Energy Information Administration expects U.S. export capacity to nearly double by 2031 from December 2025 levels.
But there are bottlenecks. Fitzpatrick said gas-turbine supply could slow U.S. LNG developers’ final investment decisions, with data centers and LNG expansions competing for equipment. He also pointed to European resistance to long-term purchases and high interest rates as hurdles.
NextDecade itself warned that further expansion trains depend on government approvals, commercial and financing agreements, tax incentives where applicable, and a final investment decision. If the short-term market weakens or more capacity is sold under different terms, the company could need less long-term shipping than it now expects.
For now, the message from producers is blunt: cargo flexibility is more valuable, and so are the ships that make it possible. The IEA said new liquefaction capacity should offset lost Qatar and UAE volumes over time, but the immediate strain is enough to pull long-term shipping back into the center of LNG negotiations.
