SHENZHEN, China, March 23, 2026, 21:38 CST
AI agents that act across multiple services could strip value from the mobile app business, Frost & Sullivan warned in a white paper on Monday, saying utility apps could lose up to 39% of their commercial value if such systems reach 25% user penetration. The firm said apps risk becoming back-end tools as the agent, not the app, becomes the main point of contact. 1
The warning lands as Chinese tech groups move from theory to rollout. Tencent on Sunday tied WeChat to OpenClaw, an open-source framework for task-running AI agents, through a new tool called ClawBot, while Alibaba on Monday launched Accio Work after introducing Wukong last week, and Baidu last week unveiled agent products spanning desktop, cloud, mobile and smart-home devices. 2
That matters because mobile is still a huge market. Sensor Tower said spending on in-app purchases and paid apps and games across iOS and Google Play hit $167 billion in 2025, with non-game revenue overtaking games for the first time. 3
Frost uses the term “invasive agents” for software that can read screens and trigger actions using operating-system permissions instead of going through application programming interfaces, or APIs, the software links apps use to exchange data in a controlled way. At 25% penetration, the firm estimated content and social platforms could lose about 19.5% of commercial value and transactional apps 15.4%, as search, comparison and transaction initiation shift away from the app itself to the agent layer. 4
The firm said the shift would not create much new value so much as move it around, while raising the bill for developers. Frost estimated mobile app development costs could rise about 16% and broader ecosystem governance costs more than 34%, while security risks would also grow, including prompt injection — malicious instructions that trick an AI system into taking unintended actions. 1
Its answer is “dual authorization”: agents would need both user consent and separate approval from the app provider before carrying out business actions, backed by full audit trails. Alibaba International Vice President Kuo Zhang struck a similar note on Monday, saying any action involving payments or private files should require “explicit, granular permission from the user.” 1
Recent launches show how fast that control fight is moving. Baidu Executive Vice-President Shen Dou said last week agents could become an “operating-system-level capability,” while former Alibaba executive Brian Wong told Reuters a tightly integrated platform could pull services “into one text box,” cutting across shopping, travel and logistics apps. 5
But the change could still be messy. Shen warned the technology is “still not perfect” and sometimes “takes detours”, and Reuters reported earlier this month that Chinese government agencies and state-owned firms had warned staff against installing OpenClaw on work devices over fears it could leak, delete or misuse data. Frost said pushing agents ahead without trust, security and accountability could hurt international collaboration and long-term credibility. 5
