LONDON, March 30, 2026, 12:06 BST
Shell Plc shares rose 1.3% in London on Monday as Brent crude pushed toward a record monthly gain, lifting bets that the energy major’s oil and liquefied natural gas, or LNG, trading business will deliver a stronger first quarter. LNG is natural gas cooled into liquid form for shipping. Rival TotalEnergies added 1.8%, and Europe’s energy index hit a record high. 1
The timing matters. Shell is due to publish a quarterly update on April 8, and analysts have already started to lift their numbers. Three analysts covering the company raised first-quarter net profit estimates by an average 15%, and Roth Capital Partners analyst Leo Mariani said, “The first quarter is going to be phenomenal for these companies.” 2
Europe is moving from market stress to policy response. EU energy ministers will hold a video meeting on Tuesday to discuss coordinated steps after Shell Chief Executive Wael Sawan warned last week that shortages could reach Europe by April. “Countries cannot have national security without energy security,” Sawan said, adding that jet fuel had already been hit and diesel could be next. 3
For Shell, the gas side may matter most. Jefferies analyst Mike Wilson said, “The gas price ramp has been the most important takeaway for markets.” Bernstein analyst Irene Himona said Europe would have to bid U.S. cargoes away from Asia if it wants more supply. Shell, the world’s largest LNG trader, has been one of the Western gas names investors have favored alongside Norway’s Equinor. 4
That is a sharper tone than in February. Shell reported fourth-quarter net profit of $3.3 billion, below forecasts, but held its $3.5 billion quarterly share buyback and raised its dividend 4%, extending a run of hefty cash returns. The company has bought back about a quarter of its stock over the last four years. 5
The longer-term picture is less comfortable. In February, Shell and analysts said the company’s reserve life — how long its proven reserves can keep current production going — had slipped below eight years, against more than 12 years at Exxon Mobil and TotalEnergies. That leaves Shell under pressure to replace barrels through exploration, acquisitions or both. 6
There is a snag for the bullish case. Shell said earlier this month that full repairs to train two at its Pearl gas-to-liquids plant in Qatar, which turns gas into transport fuels, would take about a year after Iranian attacks. Train one was not damaged. 7
The backdrop is still unstable. Brent traded around $114.99 a barrel on Monday and was up 59% for March, a record monthly rise by Reuters calculations. That boosts Shell’s earnings outlook for now, but any ceasefire or reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would likely unwind the trade quickly. 8
