London, March 30, 2026, 17:11 BST
Compass Group got some relief on Monday after BNP Paribas upgraded the British contract caterer to “neutral” from “underperform”, even as the bank cut its target price to 2,150 pence. The call came two days before Compass is due to switch the trading currency of its London-listed shares to U.S. dollars from sterling. 1
The timing matters. Compass is still trying to repair sentiment after a February selloff that followed an otherwise solid first-quarter update. Reuters reported then that investors were concerned AI could trim demand from office clients in technology, finance and professional services, which account for about 20% of group revenue. 2
The broker move was still a cautious one. MarketScreener, citing MT Newswires, said BNP Paribas lowered its target from 2,410 pence; Reuters/LSEG data showed Compass at 2,038 pence on Friday. 1
Compass has said the April 1 currency switch is meant to align its share trading currency with its reporting currency and reduce foreign-exchange noise in the stock. The company added that the change would not affect its London listing or FTSE index inclusion, and dividends would continue in sterling unless shareholders elect dollars. 3
In its Feb. 5 trading update, Compass held its 2026 outlook unchanged, guiding for about 7% organic revenue growth — sales growth excluding deals and currency swings — and around 10% growth in underlying operating profit. It also said annualised new business wins reached $4 billion and that the $1.7 billion Vermaat acquisition in Europe had been completed. 3
“We have delivered a strong start to the year,” Chief Executive Dominic Blakemore said then, describing the Vermaat deal as an added source of scale and capability in continental Europe. 3
The market response was harsher. When Compass released those figures, the shares fell to a more than three-year low even after revenue beat expectations, as analysts also pointed to GLP-1 drugs — a class of obesity treatments — and the possibility they could affect food demand over time. Blakemore told analysts Compass saw “more opportunity than risk” from AI. 2
Compass operates in about 30 countries and serves offices, hospitals, schools and sports venues. Reuters company data show it generated 46.07 billion pounds of revenue and 1.87 billion pounds of net income in 2025. 4
The broader outsourcing backdrop is mixed. French rival Sodexo has forecast slower 2026 revenue growth because of problems in its U.S. business, while Elior said in November it expected higher core profit this year. 5
But risks remain. If office demand stays soft, hiring weakens across white-collar clients or eating patterns change more than Compass expects, the group may need more than a cleaner trading currency and steady contract wins to restore confidence. 2
