London, April 30, 2026, 11:04 BST
Brent crude futures, the main global oil benchmark, rose as high as $126.41 a barrel on Thursday, the strongest level since March 2022, after a report that U.S. President Donald Trump would be briefed on new military options against Iran and as the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed. WTI, the main U.S. benchmark, also traded above $108.
This matters now because Hormuz is not a side route. The International Energy Agency says about 20 million barrels a day of crude and oil products moved through the waterway in 2025, around 25% of world seaborne oil trade, while Qatari and Emirati liquefied natural gas exports through the strait account for almost 20% of global LNG trade.
The shock is moving beyond the oil screen. Higher crude raises fuel, freight and factory costs, adding to stagflation risk — weak growth paired with sticky inflation — just as central banks are trying to keep prices under control.
The rally built fast through early trading. The Financial Times put Brent above $123 in Asian trade, Sky News described a four-year high above $122, and The Guardian later reported a move above $126 after a gain of more than 13% in 24 hours.
The political trigger was a harder U.S. line. Axios reported that Trump had rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the blockade before nuclear talks, and that U.S. Central Command had prepared options including a “short and powerful” wave of strikes and a plan to take part of the strait to reopen commercial shipping. Axios
A White House official said Trump met Chevron and other energy companies this week to discuss steps to keep the blockade in place “for months if needed” while limiting the hit to U.S. consumers. Chevron said Chief Executive Mike Wirth attended the meeting to discuss global oil markets. Reuters
Actual shipping remains thin. At least six ships crossed Hormuz in a 24-hour period, Reuters reported, versus 125 to 140 daily passages before the war began on February 28; the U.S. Navy-led Joint Maritime Information Center said commercial traffic was still limited despite the April 8 ceasefire.
Analysts are watching duration more than price. John Evans of oil broker PVM said oil prices “need little encouragement” to move higher and warned investors to “look away now” if they doubt Brent can reach $150; IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said chances of a near-term resolution or reopening of Hormuz remained “dim.” Reuters
ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey wrote that the breakdown in U.S.-Iran talks and Trump’s reported rejection of Iran’s proposal had the market “losing hope for any quick resumption in oil flows.” That is the core trade now: not just war risk, but lost barrels. AP News
The squeeze is also showing in U.S. data. The Energy Information Administration said U.S. crude inventories fell 6.2 million barrels in the week to April 24, while gasoline stocks fell for an 11th week; Bob Yawger at Mizuho said the gasoline-stock trend was “getting ugly fast” before the summer driving season. Reuters
Supply relief looks limited. OPEC+ is expected to agree a small 188,000 barrel-per-day quota increase on Sunday, sources told Reuters, but Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE have struggled to export normally while Hormuz is blocked. The UAE’s exit from OPEC and OPEC+ may matter more later than now.
Companies are acting the same way. TotalEnergies Chief Executive Patrick Pouyanne said the French major would wait for “real stabilisation” in Hormuz before restarting regional operations, with about 15% of its upstream production offline and nine tankers stuck; moving full tankers out and empty ones back in could take “2-3 months,” he said. Reuters
But the rally has a risk on the other side. A credible reopening of Hormuz would change the supply math quickly, and very high prices can cause demand destruction — consumers and companies simply use less fuel because it costs too much. Fitch’s Paul Gamble said the UAE’s OPEC exit makes no near-term difference while Hormuz is effectively closed, but exports could rise once the strait fully reopens.
