New York, May 20, 2026, 06:56 EDT
Stock index futures in the U.S. moved up early Wednesday as traders looked ahead to Nvidia’s latest earnings release, seen as a possible driver for AI stocks after the S&P 500 dropped for three sessions. As of 5:39 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis added 34 points. S&P 500 futures climbed 0.26%, Nasdaq 100 futures traded up 0.59%, according to Reuters.
Nvidia’s results are in focus this time, and it’s not just a routine megacap earnings event. Options markets are pricing in a 6.5% move in the shares after the numbers come out, which would shift about $355 billion in market value. That’s a bigger swing than most companies in the S&P 500.
Test comes as the market shows some fatigue. The S&P 500 dropped 0.7% on Tuesday, losing for the third session in a row after its most recent record. The Dow was off 0.6% and the Nasdaq lost 0.8%, pulled down by higher bond yields hitting tech stocks.
Nvidia, now the world’s most valuable company, will talk about its fiscal first-quarter results starting at 5 p.m. ET. Written remarks are slated to come out after the company announces results at about 4:20 p.m. ET. Nvidia says the quarter wrapped up April 26.
Nvidia and other chip and cloud stocks are trading on bets that AI data center spending will keep up. Analysts polled by LSEG, as reported by Reuters, see Nvidia’s revenue jumping close to 80% to $79 billion.
Rate conditions have shifted. A Reuters poll out Tuesday said most economists don’t see the Federal Reserve cutting rates this year. Interest-rate futures put slim odds on a quarter-point hike by late January.
Bond yields gave back just a bit after surging. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.687% overnight, its highest point in 16 months, and the 30-year yield hit 5.198%, the highest since 2007, then both slipped. Jefferies’ Mohit Kumar said inflation from rising oil could push up government costs and that “higher rates should also start feeding into risky assets.” Reuters
Oil still acting as a swing factor. Brent crude lost 1.4% to $109.76 a barrel by 0831 GMT after President Donald Trump said again the Iran war would end “very quickly.” But LSEG analyst Emril Jamil said supply is unlikely to go back to pre-war levels right away, even with a deal. Reuters
Chip stocks aren’t moving in one direction. Intel, AMD, and Alphabet are showing up as new rivals in inference chips, the kind used to run trained AI models. Nvidia still has to top high expectations from the Street. IG analyst Tony Sycamore called the latest dip in the market a “corrective pullback” and said Nvidia may not keep surprising investors like before. Reuters
Options traders keep betting on more gains. Matt Amberson at ORATS said investors are “complacent about AI/capex.” Chris Murphy from Susquehanna pointed out the options market is “paying for upside participation,” which suggests traders want in on another move higher but are also hedging popular semiconductor names. Reuters
Nvidia has slipped after its last three earnings, Jamie McGeever at Reuters pointed out. That’s despite strong numbers. Ameriprise’s Anthony Saglimbene also said that higher yields and sticky inflation could mean investors just won’t keep paying up for long-duration growth names, even with solid fundamentals.
Wednesday’s session is stuck in a wait-and-see mode with one main driver ahead. Investors face the Fed minutes, a 20-year Treasury auction, and Nvidia’s earnings later today. That keeps the early move in futures in question for now.
