SYDNEY, June 30, 2026, 09:04 AEST
- Qantas ended the session at A$10.70 on June 29, gaining 0.2%. Shares finished around 4.1% under the average analyst target.
- Investors get a new angle with network changes: 45,000 extra seats added for Tokyo and Queenstown routes, while last week’s update saw cuts on weaker Northern Territory flights.
- The ASX hadn’t opened yet at the dateline. Regular trading kicks off at 09:59:45 Sydney time with a brief random open.
Qantas Airways Limited ASX:QAN heads into the last trading day of FY26 with its average broker target looking tight, but the carrier has a clearer focus on its network. It’s putting more planes on routes with solid leisure demand and pulling back on parts of the network hit by high costs or lighter passenger numbers.
Qantas shares closed at A$10.70 on Monday, up 0.2% for the session, after moving between A$10.59 and A$10.75, according to the airline’s investor site. The S&P/ASX 200 (INDEXASX:XJO) gained 59.2 points, or 0.68%, to finish at 8,823.4 on Monday. MarketIndex said the benchmark was expected to open flat on Tuesday.
| Qantas market check | Latest confirmed figure | Investor read-through |
|---|---|---|
| QAN last price | A$10.70 at 4:00 p.m. June 29 | Shares stayed steady at the year-end close |
| Day range | A$10.59-A$10.75 | Tight range, nothing new on ASX price-sensitive releases |
| 5-day / Jan. 1 change | +6.36% / +3.08% | Recent jump trimmed some of the room to climb |
| Average target | A$11.14; 16 analysts; mean “Buy” | Roughly 4.1% room to target price |
| 52-week range | A$8.04-A$12.62 | 15.2% off the high, 33.1% up from the low |
| Next scheduled result | FY26 results on Aug. 27 | Focus on route and fuel now set to show in results |
The market cap was about A$15.86 billion. Investing.com showed the last price at A$10.70 and said the stock traded between A$8.04 and A$12.62 over the past year. MarketScreener said the average target was A$11.14, with estimates going as high as A$12.80 and as low as A$10.00.
Qantas ASX:QAN moved to ramp up Tokyo and Queenstown capacity again, but Tuesday’s stock action is more about what the scale of new growth means. The carrier said June 29 it will add over 45,000 seats on the two routes by early next year, including 30,000 seats for Melbourne-Narita flights set from December 2026 through March 2027.
| Network move | Capacity fact | Stock read-through |
|---|---|---|
| Melbourne-Narita | Jumps from daily to 11 flights a week; 30,000 more seats | Adds supply where demand is up |
| Queenstown | Over 15,000 seats added for the summer peak | Seasonal lift, seen as safer than year-round thin routes |
| Sydney-Auckland | Capacity grows up to 10% | Tasman demand holding, planes still shifted to the market |
| Alice Springs-Melbourne | Pulled with no set return | Pulls out of a route that hasn’t worked |
| Darwin-Singapore | Service reduced to peak only; paused Oct to June 2027 | International capacity moved to higher-return periods |
Japan comes through as the cleanest number here. Qantas reported an 8% jump in Japan passenger traffic between October 2025 and March 2026, reaching 350,000 travelers. The carrier’s move to add 30,000 more Melbourne-Narita seats represents about 8.6% of that six-month total—a focused increase, not a big broad shift in capacity.
Qantas International CEO Cam Wallace said in a company statement, “Japan remains one of the most popular destinations on our international network.” Qantas Newsroom
The other update landed four days before. ABC said Qantas planned to suspend its Alice Springs-Melbourne route for good and scale back Darwin-Singapore flights to just peak demand, because of falling bookings and higher costs. “The service is no longer viable,” Qantas Domestic CEO Markus Svensson said. ABC News
This matters for investors as Qantas enters FY27 still exposed to moves in refining margins. Qantas said in April that jet fuel prices had more than doubled from its 1H26 view, and projected 2H26 fuel costs of A$3.1 billion to A$3.3 billion, after jet refining margins surged from US$20 a barrel in February up to around US$120. 2H26 unit revenue guidance also got a bump — up 4%-6% for international and about 5% for domestic.
Project Sunrise is still part of the Qantas valuation story, but it’s not driving near-term trades. This month, Reuters said Qantas picked London for its first ultra-long-haul route. Ticket sales are set to open in February 2027, with flights starting October 2027 on modified Airbus SE EPA:AIR A350-1000ULR jets carrying 238 passengers. Qantas has said Project Sunrise could boost earnings by over A$400 million a year.
“What they are selling is time,” aviation analyst John Strickland told Reuters. Strickland said Qantas needs to charge a premium in all cabins. Qantas said it wants to match the 20% premium it gets on Perth-London flights compared to one-stop trips. Reuters
QAN filed a substantial-holder notice with the ASX on June 24, according to filings from June 24-June 30. This notice wasn’t flagged as price-sensitive. The company’s next big financial update is the FY26 results, set for Aug. 27 following the June 30 year end.
