National Grid LON:NG is still below its price from before the Joulent update, with the AI power angle running into debt numbers. LONDON, July 7, 2026, 10:07 BST
- National Grid edged up 0.24% to 1,234p by 0950 BST, trailing the FTSE 100, which was up 0.61%.
- The shares stayed roughly 1.1% under where they finished on June 30, ahead of the Joulent data-centre power agreement on July 1.
- Street sets a median 12-month target at 1,377p, with National Grid’s FY27 guidance pointing to underlying EPS between 88.1p and 89.7p.
National Grid plc LON:NG inched up 0.24% to 1,234.00 pence at 0950 BST on Tuesday, trailing the FTSE 100’s 0.61% gain at 0926 BST. The stock clawed back some ground after Monday’s drop. The London Stock Exchange ran its normal Tuesday session from 0800 to 1630 BST.
For investors, the bigger question is the current level, not today’s move. National Grid shares remain about 1.1% under the June 30 close of 1,248p, the day before the company announced the Joulent investment on July 1. Shares dropped 2.96% that day, then picked up gains on July 2 and July 3, before falling 1.05% on Monday.
The price move shows a divided story. Investors haven’t dismissed the data-centre power drive, but National Grid is still mostly valued as a regulated utility with big spending, growing debt, and rate-review risks.
The table below is based on delayed prices and LSEG consensus as shown by Investors Chronicle:
| Measure | Latest / forecast | Investor read |
|---|---|---|
| National Grid share price | 1,234.00p, up 0.24% | Shares underperformed the FTSE 100 in early trading |
| FTSE 100 | 10,717.25, up 0.61% | Index edged higher |
| June 30 National Grid close | 1,248.00p | Still down about 1.1% from this mark |
| Median 12-month target | 1,377.00p | Roughly 11.6% above current price |
| High / low target | 1,500.00p / 1,060.00p | Potential range: up 21.6%, down 14.1% |
| Consensus split | 2 buy, 7 outperform, 6 hold, 2 sell | Skewed positive, but divided |
National Grid’s May guidance points to quicker earnings growth than the share price suggests right now. Based on 78.0p underlying EPS for 2025/26, and its 13%-15% FY27 EPS growth target, that works out to around 88.1p-89.7p. At 1,234p, the shares trade at about 13.8-14.0 times the implied FY27 number.
| Company guide / market forecast | Stated figure | Implied number |
|---|---|---|
| Company has set 2025/26 underlying EPS at 78.0p | 78.0p for 2025/26 | — |
| Management expects underlying EPS to rise 13% to 15% for FY27 | +13% to +15% | 88.1p to 89.7p |
| EPS CAGR over five years guided at 8% to 10% | +8% to +10% | EPS could hit 114.6p to 125.6p by FY31 using the base |
| Capex in FY27 guided close to £13 bln | Nearly £13 bln | Company sees about 10% asset growth |
| Net debt forecast at £44.2 bln as of March 31, 2026 | £44.2 bln | Net debt seen rising by just over £6 bln in FY27 |
Joulent brings a new wrinkle. National Grid Ventures is putting $1.75 billion into a 35% stake in Joulent LLC, a company building power plants for big U.S. load clients. Project Kilby, a 2.67 GW site in West Texas developed with Chevron Corporation NYSE:CVX, will supply a Microsoft Corporation NASDAQ:MSFT data center under a 20-year deal. GE Vernova Inc NYSE:GEV turbines and construction slots are booked, with first power planned for 2028.
CEO Zoë Yujnovich described Joulent as a “disciplined, partner-led investment.” Joulent founder and chief executive Chris James said the company’s model was designed to keep from “shifting the cost … onto local communities.” SEC
J.P. Morgan analysts thought Joulent returns would top the 9%-10% regulated network equity return due to higher risk, Reuters said. The main question for the stock is if that extra return is enough to balance project risk, gas exposure, and the delay before free cash flow, which National Grid says could come in the early 2030s.
The regulated business remains bigger. National Grid says it plans at least £70 billion of capex through 2030/31. Around two-thirds is backed by regulatory deals, and about three-quarters of the spending has either supply-chain or delivery structures in place. Yujnovich described it as the “largest investment programme in our history.” National Grid
Britain’s National Energy System Operator said last week it expects the cost to upgrade the country’s power grid will run about £89 billion over the next decade. The group sees electricity demand jumping more than 30% by the middle of the 2030s. Network fees already account for about 25% of a standard home energy bill, so allowed returns for operators are still tightly linked to the politics of rising bills.
Aarin Chiekrie, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said after National Grid’s results that while the group’s earnings growth target seemed realistic, the big spend planned still had “plenty of execution risk.” Morningstar’s Tancrede Fulop said in June that the market was “overly discounting high interest rates” for the sector. For National Grid, Fulop said valuation in a higher-rate scenario “becomes more balanced.” HL
National Grid has its AGM set for July 14. The final 2025/26 dividend, 48.49p a share—up 3.8%—is due July 23, covered around 1.6 times by underlying earnings. First-half results land Nov. 5.
