SAN FRANCISCO, July 7, 2026, 01:25 (PDT)
- OpenAI is valued at $852 billion and posts $2 billion a month in revenue, putting it at about 35.5 times annualized revenue. Anthropic, at a $965 billion value and $47 billion revenue run-rate, trades at around 20.5 times.
- OpenAI filed confidential IPO papers and may aim as high as $1 trillion, according to reports. Some coverage puts a public debut as far out as 2027.
- Reuters said open-source tokens made up 65% of those processed on OpenRouter in June, up from 34% in January.
- Anthropic has signed a 20-year lease with TeraWulf NASDAQ:WULF, which should bring in around $19 billion in contracted revenue for TeraWulf.
OpenAI and Anthropic are lining up for public debuts, and Wall Street is already looking at the numbers. OpenAI’s most recent private valuation sits at about 1.7 times Anthropic’s when you compare annualized revenue. If OpenAI were to go public at $1 trillion, that lead would jump to nearly two times.
The company marks are from their own statements. In March, OpenAI said it finished a $122 billion round, putting its post-money value at $852 billion and said monthly revenue had hit $2 billion. Anthropic said in May it raised $65 billion at a $965 billion post-money valuation, with run-rate revenue above $47 billion.
| Company | Last private value | Revenue run-rate used here | Value/run-rate | IPO status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI | $852 bln | $24 bln, assuming $2 bln revenue a month | 35.5x | Confidential filing; no IPO timeline yet |
| OpenAI at reported IPO target | $1.0 trln | $24 bln | 41.7x | Reuters reported IPO could hit $1 trln valuation |
| Anthropic | $965 bln | $47 bln | 20.5x | Filed confidentially, ahead of OpenAI |
Investors aren’t focused on whether OpenAI goes public in September or waits until 2027. The main question is whether token-based revenue keeps rising if customers shift to lower-cost models.
OpenAI isn’t setting a firm date yet. “It may be a while,” the company said in a statement sent to Reuters, pointing to how some work is simpler as a private firm. Michael Ashley Schulman, partner at Cerity Partners, told Reuters, “OpenAI is keeping options open” as Anthropic moved first. Reuters
SpaceX NASDAQ:SPCX swings are making some investors cautious. According to Motley Fool, pointing to Jefferies data, companies valued at $10 billion or more that went public in the last 26 years saw average gains of 26.5% during their first week. But after one year, the average gain dropped to just 3.5%.
Anthropic’s spending is getting clearer. The company said the May fundraising will go to boost compute. CFO Krishna Rao said Claude is “increasingly indispensable” for clients. TeraWulf on Monday said its lease deal with Anthropic is for around 401 megawatts of critical IT load in Kentucky. The first capacity is targeted for the back half of 2027, with all of it in place by early 2028. Anthropic
| Pressure point | Latest data | Investor read-through |
|---|---|---|
| Open-source usage | OpenRouter tokens at 65% in June, up from 34% in January | Premium API price faces headwinds |
| Chinese model pricing | 18 cents per million tokens, versus $4 average for top models, Citi note via Reuters | Budget impact from cheaper models |
| Anthropic compute lease | $19 bln commitment over 20 years with TeraWulf | Roughly $950 mln/year if spread out |
| OpenAI cash burn | The Information said $3.7 bln loss in Q1 on $5.7 bln revenue; Reuters not able to confirm | Audited results will matter more than reported sales |
“Changing the license model caught a lot of people by surprise,” BlueRock CEO Harold Byun told Reuters. Some customers ended up 20% to 30% over budget. Val Bercovici, chief AI officer at WEKA, said open-source models are “90% as good at 10% of the price.” Reuters
Palantir Technologies NASDAQ:PLTR CEO Alex Karp criticized the token model at Anthropic and OpenAI, saying on CNBC that “something has gone completely wrong” with the approach, The Daily Upside reported. The Daily Upside
OpenAI’s spending is under fresh scrutiny. Reuters, citing The Information, said OpenAI spent $3.7 billion in the first quarter—over half its $5.7 billion in revenue. Reuters said it couldn’t verify the report. OpenAI told investors it doesn’t expect to turn a profit before 2030, Reuters reported last month.
Washington is considering a second discount rate. OpenAI, according to the Financial Times and Reuters, has talked about giving the U.S. government a 5% stake. At OpenAI’s latest private valuation, that would be $42.6 billion, or $50 billion if the company goes public at a $1 trillion value. Indranil Bandyopadhyay from Forrester told Reuters a U.S. stake before an IPO could cut regulatory risk in the country, but that might push other governments to demand similar agreements.
Names like Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT, Amazon.com NASDAQ:AMZN, NVIDIA NASDAQ:NVDA, SoftBank Group (TYO:9984), Alphabet NASDAQ:GOOGL and Meta Platforms NASDAQ:META are on watch as investors look for AI exposure through cloud and data-center spending. Morgan Stanley said Monday there could be a shift back toward hyperscalers as the AI story continues. Still, Reuters said the firm pointed out it’s not clear yet if AI products can make enough money to justify the big costs.
