London, July 7, 2026, 10:05 BST
- Rio Tinto’s London listing was shown late at 6,909/6,910p, off 1.81%. The FTSE 100 quote nearby had gained 0.66%.
- Rio’s Sydney shares dropped 0.9% on Tuesday, tracking a 0.7% slide for Australian miners.
- Analysts see Rio’s May consensus FY27 underlying EBITDA at $31.03 billion, up 2.7% from FY26, even though iron ore EBITDA is lower.
- Next up is the Q2 operations review, expected July 14 in London.
Rio Tinto plc LON:RIO dropped Tuesday as the FTSE 100 pushed higher, with the miner trading near the lower end of its book ahead of next week’s production report. The London Stock Exchange was open for its normal 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. BST hours as of 10:05 BST. Delayed numbers from Hargreaves Lansdown showed Rio off 127p, or 1.81%, at 6,909/6,910p.
The moves looked like an iron ore story. Rio Tinto Ltd ASX:RIO dropped 0.9% in Sydney trading, with the Aussie miners index weaker by 0.7%. Iron ore was at $98.30 a tonne on July 6, according to Trading Economics, down 2.72% in a month. Reuters global markets had copper at $13,326 a tonne late Tuesday, off 0.58%.
The question for Rio is if it should still be seen as mostly an iron ore play. Its own consensus numbers show the 2027 earnings mix isn’t as tied to Pilbara as the market move on Tuesday would suggest.
Rio’s consensus page lists sell-side estimates from the UK, Australia and North America, gathered by Visible Alpha. These are not Rio’s own numbers. The table for May 18 shows FY27 underlying EBITDA just $820 million higher than FY26, but iron ore isn’t behind that change.
| Rio consensus line | FY26 | FY27 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Underlying EBITDA, US$m | 30,213 | 31,033 | +820 |
| Iron ore EBITDA, US$m | 14,620 | 14,291 | -329 |
| Simandou EBITDA, US$m | 119 | 941 | +822 |
| Copper EBITDA, US$m | 9,593 | 9,920 | +327 |
| Lithium EBITDA, US$m | 688 | 962 | +274 |
Simandou and lithium are set to bring in $1.10 billion of EBITDA in FY27, going by those numbers. That’s more than triple the $329 million drop expected in iron ore EBITDA. For shareholders, the July 14 operations review goes beyond just Pilbara volumes; it’s a gauge on whether these newer businesses can support the stock’s premium to the lower target.
Consensus also sees higher volumes beyond the old iron ore base. Rio’s table shows this production bridge:
| Rio consensus volume line | FY26 | FY27 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Simandou sales, ’000 tonnes | 7,561 | 28,339 | +20,778 |
| Lithium output, ’000 tonnes LCE | 62 | 84 | +22 |
| Copper output, ’000 tonnes | 874 | 924 | +50 |
| Pilbara production, ’000 tonnes | 332,633 | 336,116 | +3,483 |
Rio execs have worked to back up the non-iron ore story for investors. Jérôme Pécresse, who leads aluminium and lithium, told Reuters in June, “We want to show that we can build on time and on budget.” He also said Rio has “a clear roadmap” for reaching 200,000 tonnes of lithium capacity a year by 2028. Reuters
At Oyu Tolgoi, Copper CEO Katie Jackson said Rio’s new Mongolia financing deal landed as the project moves to a “lower risk, steady state operation.” On June 30, Rio said the mine is still set to hit average copper output of about 500,000 tonnes a year from 2028 through 2036. Rio Tinto
Analysts’ targets still give Rio some room, though it won’t help much if iron ore prices drop again. Investors Chronicle numbers show 20 analysts have a median 12-month target of 7,673.19p, about 9% above the 7,036p reference. Targets range from 6,178.28p to 9,268.16p.
Rio is due to post its Q2 operations review on July 14 at 23:30 BST. Half-year numbers are set to drop at around 23:30 BST on July 28 in London. The Sydney release is marked for July 29.
