London, July 7, 2026, 11:10 BST
- BP gained 1.30% to 473.90p in London. Analysts have a median 12-month target of 602.59p.
- BP has exited its 37.2% stake in Bay du Nord, shedding an implied $3.66 billion share. First oil from the project isn’t expected until 2031.
- That implied avoided funding comes out to around 28% of BP’s $13 billion to $13.5 billion 2026 capex guidance.
- Brent climbed after vessels came under attack near the Strait of Hormuz. But Societe Generale trimmed oil forecasts for late-2026 and 2027.
BP PLC LON:BP moved higher Tuesday after quitting the Bay du Nord oil project in Canada. Investors focused on the numbers after the move, with BP’s 37.2% share of the C$14 billion project representing about $3.66 billion in future development costs. That would have been about 28% of its planned capital spending for 2026.
Shares were at 473.90p, up 6.10p or 1.30% as of 10:51 BST, LSEG data from Investors Chronicle showed. The stock has gained 27.48% over the past year, but it’s still under the median 12-month analyst target of 602.59p.
BP said Monday it would sell its Bay du Nord stake to Equinor ASA NYSE:EQNR, putting the Norwegian company in full control of the project. Deal terms weren’t given. Bay du Nord aims to produce over 400 million barrels in its first phase, with a final investment decision targeted for early 2027. First oil is slated for 2031.
BP upstream boss Gordon Birrell said the company is sticking to “strict capital discipline” and funding assets with the highest value. Equinor’s Philippe Mathieu said the group cut major risks at Bay du Nord and plans to seek partners ahead of an investment call. World Oil
| BP marker | Latest figure or forecast | Investor read-through |
|---|---|---|
| Bay du Nord project capex | C$14 bln / $9.84 bln | BP’s 37.2% cut worked out to $3.66 bln before selling |
| BP 2026 capex guide | $13 bln-$13.5 bln | Bay du Nord was around 27%-28% of the projected spend |
| BP 2026 disposals guide | $9 bln-$10 bln | Fits BP’s cash target, but terms are still undisclosed |
| Analyst 12-month target | 602.59p median | That’s 27% over Tuesday’s 473.90p close |
| Dividend forecast | $0.34 for next fiscal year | 2.15% higher than the $0.33 seen in 2025 |
BP hit pause on buybacks in February, planning to put cash toward lowering debt and putting more money into oil and gas projects that have stronger returns. Hargreaves Lansdown noted BP’s 2026 capex guidance is set between $13 billion and $13.5 billion, with disposals forecast at $9 billion to $10 billion.
The sale also cuts BP’s long-cycle barrel exposure as its equity story is still shaped by short-cycle cash flow, oil trading and leverage. First-quarter profit more than doubled to $3.2 billion, mainly thanks to oil trading. Net debt increased to $25.3 billion from just over $22 billion. CEO Meg O’Neill told Reuters the company is “controlling what we can control” by aiming to boost output outside the conflict area. Reuters
Oil prices added to the boost. Brent crude gained $0.89, or 1.24%, at $72.88 a barrel by 0939 GMT after reports of attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz. Ole Hansen at Saxo Bank said the market was moving on news of “a ship being shot at” in the area, and saw $75 as likely if the situation worsens. Reuters
| Market comparison | Latest data point | Forecast or guide |
|---|---|---|
| BP LON:BP | 473.90p, up 1.30% | 19-analyst median target sits at 602.59p |
| Shell Plc LON:SHEL | Up 3.2% at 0825 GMT | Citi raised its Q2 EPS call for Shell by 13% after the update |
| Brent crude | $72.88, up 1.24% | Societe Generale estimates Q4 2026 at $75, with 2027 average at $73 |
| BP earnings date | Aug. 4, 2026 | Q2 results will show how trading gains stack up against debt moves and production |
Shell issued a more bullish peer indicator Tuesday, hiking its Q2 gas output forecast to 610,000-650,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day from a prior 580,000-640,000. The company also said gas trading results will be much higher than Q1 levels. Shell put Q2 Brent at around $97 a barrel, up from $78 in Q1.
BP faces a trade-off. The market is weighing whether it values BP’s cash discipline more than it penalizes the company for giving up future barrels. BP’s 37.2% stake in Bay du Nord meant over 149 million barrels of working-interest resource in the project’s first phase, but those barrels were tied to a development still waiting on approval and not set to produce before 2031.
Societe Generale is taking the other side, calling for the oil market to flip into surplus in late 2026. The bank trimmed its Brent outlook to $75 for the fourth quarter, down from $83, and now sees Brent at $73 for 2027. That’s lower than its previous $79 forecast. BP is expected to update on Aug. 4.
