LONDON, July 7, 2026, 13:09 BST
- London Stock Exchange Group rose 2.03% to 9,032p at 12:51 BST. The stock added 2.10% on Monday.
- The shares stayed 17.8% under the 52-week high. Analyst targets from LSEG point to around 34% potential upside.
- Early volume lagged the 65-day average, leaving the AI-risk argument unresolved for now as the rally kicked off.
London Stock Exchange Group plc (LON:LSEG) traded up for a second day on Tuesday. Shares were at 9,032p, higher by 2.03%, at 12:51 BST. Volume came in at 137,314 shares, well below the 65-day average of 1.6 million. Day range was 8,900p to 9,102p. The published target price still sits above the live price.
FTSE 100 Index (INDEXFTSE:UKX) was up 0.33% at 10,686.54 at 12:53 BST. Reuters had put the index up 0.2% earlier, with energy stocks helping to counter losses in mining. LSEG’s shares are tracking well ahead for a second day. On Monday, LSEG finished 2.10% higher at £88.52. The FTSE 100 dropped 0.26% that day.
The key stat isn’t today’s gain. What stands out is Tuesday’s price, still about 34% under LSEG’s consensus target of 12,131p. LSEG’s May 8 consensus, based on 15 analyst models, had 16 buys, zero holds, and no sells.
| Forecast source | Share-price reference | Target/forecast | Implied change vs 9,032p |
|---|---|---|---|
| LSEG consensus | 15 analyst models | 12,131p target | +34.3% |
| Investors Chronicle/median | 15 analysts | 12,000p target | +32.9% |
| Investors Chronicle/low | 15 analysts | 10,400p target | +15.1% |
| Investors Chronicle/high | 15 analysts | 13,600p target | +50.6% |
Investors Chronicle puts the median 12-month target at 12,000p, with forecasts spanning 10,400p to 13,600p. Analysts expect the dividend to climb to £1.66 for the next fiscal year, up from £1.50 reported for 2025.
The discount has hung on even after LSEG improved its operations. In April, LSEG said it’s aiming for 6.5% to 7.5% organic constant-currency growth in total income excluding recoveries by 2026, expecting to hit the upper half of that range. It also forecast an 80 to 100 basis-point lift in constant-currency EBITDA margin, and said equity free cash flow for the year should be at least £2.7 billion.
| 2026 metric | LSEG guidance |
|---|---|
| Organic income growth at constant currency, recoveries excluded | 6.5%-7.5% with the top half likely |
| EBITDA margin change at constant currency | Up 80 to 100 basis points |
| Capex intensity | Roughly 9.5% of income, excluding recoveries |
| Equity free cash flow | Minimum £2.7 bln |
LSEG CEO David Schwimmer said in the April trading update that LSEG “made a great start to 2026 across the board.” The company reported more than 150 customers have connected or are onboarding to its MCP server for AI-ready data. LSEG
The next test isn’t just about revenue growth. LSEG has to show it can get paid for AI use quickly enough to catch up on valuation. UBS’s Michael Werner called it a “show me” story for AI, speaking to Reuters last month. Benjamin Goy at Deutsche Bank said LSEG was “pretty cheap compared to other data companies.” Reuters
LSEG was trading at about 18 times forward earnings in June, according to Reuters, putting it at a roughly 30% discount to Moody’s Corp (NYSE:MCO) and about 40% below MSCI Inc NYSE:MSCI. It’s still pricier than FactSet Research Systems Inc (NYSE:FDS). That is the bull case: investors say the data quality should command a higher price, but AI-related risk hasn’t disappeared.
BofA Global Research’s Hubert Lam told Reuters that LSEG has been talking more about being “part of the AI ecosystem”. But Stephen Yiu, Blue Whale Growth Fund’s chief investment officer, took a harder line: “I don’t believe the risk … is minimal,” he said. Reuters
LSEG’s next big date is July 30, when it’s set to post first-half results for the six months to June 30. CEO David Schwimmer and CFO Michel-Alain Proch will run the webcast.
