New York, March 3, 2026, 15:02 ET — Regular session
- AVAV surged nearly 11% after the company updated investors on its active contract talks with Space Force.
- Only a day ago, shares plunged 17% on worries that the SCAR program could go back to open bidding.
- Analysts can’t seem to agree on the level of backlog and earnings power at risk. The picture gets clearer March 10.
AeroVironment Inc shares leapt $22.80, or 10.9%, to $231.12 by Tuesday afternoon after the defense tech company said talks with the U.S. Space Force over SCAR program contract changes are still underway. The stock made a wide run between $207.10 and $236.54, with volume outpacing recent averages.
The stock managed to recover some ground after Monday’s steep 17.4% tumble. Selling accelerated when the U.S. Space Force announced it was reopening the Satellite Communications Augmentation Resource program. Then came a sharp downgrade from Raymond James’ Brian Gesuale, who cut his rating to underperform from strong buy. “Backlog is the precursor to revenue and adds uncertainty to our forward estimates,” Gesuale wrote in his note. Here, backlog means orders on the books that haven’t been delivered yet. Kiplinger
SCAR is drawing plenty of investor attention now — it’s a hefty piece, sitting squarely in the portion of the order book that’s all about longer-term growth plays. Stifel points out SCAR makes up nearly half of AeroVironment’s unfunded backlog, so these are projects on the horizon but not yet locked in with funding. Even so, the firm expects SCAR to deliver just 10% to 12% of revenue and earnings for next year.
AeroVironment plans to pump more than $30 million into its Albuquerque defense manufacturing campus, according to an announcement Tuesday from both the company and state officials. The project is expected to generate at least 450 new jobs in the area and could deliver over $670 million in economic impact throughout the coming decade. “The growth we’re driving in Albuquerque goes beyond our own business,” CEO Wahid Nawabi said. New Mexico EDD
SCAR has tightened up its contract terms. According to a January 8-K, the company issued a stop-work order while renegotiating the program, flagging that the arrangement would probably move to a “firm-fixed-price” model. That means if costs rise, contractors—not the government—are typically on the hook for overruns. SEC
Jefferies’ Greg Konrad didn’t budge from his buy rating on Tuesday, saying the selloff looked overblown. Konrad flagged the Space Force’s plans to restart the SCAR program, which is seeking additional vendors to strengthen supply-chain resilience in case surge production is needed.
Canaccord Genuity slashed its price target to $330 from $400 but kept the buy rating intact. The firm pulled the remaining SCAR revenue out of its second-half fiscal 2026 forecast, yet emphasized the contract is still on the table and may be renegotiated.
BTIG stuck with its buy call and $415 target on Monday, calling the day’s drop “overdone”—the contract in question was only set to account for roughly 6% of annual revenue anyway. Still, analysts warned that “headline risk” around SCAR could linger. Investing
The bearish case isn’t just a talking point here. Piper Sandler took a hatchet to its AeroVironment price target, cutting it down to $290 from $391 after the Space Force’s move cast fresh doubts on the BADGER program. Their analysts flagged that if the contract gets reopened, the stock could struggle for some time—even if AeroVironment stays in the running.
Director Stephen F. Page sold 250 shares at $300 each on March 2, according to a regulatory filing posted Tuesday. The trade was carried out using a Rule 10b5-1 plan initiated in September 2025.
March 10 looms large for traders. AeroVironment is set to release its fiscal Q3 results once markets close. Investors are watching for answers: will SCAR maintain the updated strategy, or is a broader shake-up coming? The Albuquerque expansion throws an extra variable into the mix—delivery schedules could be on the line.
