London, July 2, 2026, 20:01 BST
- Antofagasta plc (LON:ANTO) finished 1.96% higher at GBX 3,852 in London, lifting its market cap by roughly 730 million pounds on the day, based on calculations.
- The newest concern for the market is a July 1 report saying Antofagasta reached terms with some Chinese smelters to sell concentrate on a spot index, but with a price floor.
- After Q1, the miner still needs to produce between 169,000 and 186,000 tonnes of copper per quarter to meet its steady 2026 target.
- Copper slipped 0.16% on July 2, but it’s still up almost 20% from a year ago.
Antofagasta plc (LON:ANTO) closed up 1.96% at GBX 3,852 on Thursday in London, up 74 pence. That added roughly 730 million pounds to its market cap using Google Finance’s share count. The quote came in at 16:49 BST, just after the London market closed at 16:30 BST.
The stock topped the FTSE 100 Index (INDEXFTSE:UKX), which added 1.7% to close at 10,652.9, a level not seen since late April. A weaker U.S. jobs report cooled rate worries, Reuters said.
| Market marker | Latest / close | Day move |
|---|---|---|
| Antofagasta plc (LON:ANTO) | GBX 3,852 | up 1.96% |
| FTSE 100 Index (INDEXFTSE:UKX) | 10,652.9 | gained 1.7% |
| Copper CFD reference | $6.11/lb | off 0.16% |
| Fresnillo Plc (LON:FRES) | GBX 2,879 | added 3.04% |
| Glencore PLC (LON:GLEN) | GBX 511.31 | down 0.19% |
| Rio Tinto plc (LON:RIO) | GBX 7,081 | slipped 0.23% |
The weird thing was the metal tape. Copper dropped to $6.11 a pound on July 2, down 5.67% over the past month. Still, that’s up 19.97% from a year ago, according to Trading Economics.
Antofagasta has more to worry about than just spot copper prices. SMM said July 1 the Chilean miner agreed to sell copper concentrate to some Chinese smelters using spot-indexed pricing, but with a guaranteed floor. This would scrap the fixed treatment and refining charge benchmark that’s been standard for decades. Antofagasta called the talks confidential and declined to discuss with third parties.
This is key since treatment and refining charges, or TC/RCs, signal tightness in concentrate first. Spot TCs were at about minus $126.80 a metric ton late last week, according to Argus figures in the Reuters story. A spot-indexed term contract would push Antofagasta more in line with that squeezed market. The floor would hold the drop in check.
The copper squeeze isn’t over in a week. Reuters’ Andy Home wrote June 26 that annual copper TC/RCs dropped from $80 a tonne and 8 cents a pound in 2024 to $21.25 and 2.125 cents in 2025, and then reached zero this year. China’s refined copper output climbed 8% in 2025 as global mine production added 1%. Output in China was up another 7.4% year-on-year for January-April 2026.
Antofagasta booked Q1 copper output at 143,000 tonnes, off 7.6% from a year ago and down 19.2% from the prior quarter. The group kept its full-year goal unchanged at 650,000-700,000 tonnes.
| 2026 copper output math | Tonnes | Investor read-through |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 actual | 143,000 | Pace still muted |
| Full-year guidance, low end | 650,000 | Short by 507,000 |
| Full-year guidance, high end | 700,000 | Short by 557,000 |
| Q2-Q4 average needed, low end | 169,000 | Must run 18% higher than Q1 |
| Q2-Q4 average needed, high end | 185,667 | Must beat Q1 by 30% |
CEO Iván Arriagada said in April Antofagasta was looking for copper output to go up quarter by quarter as ore processing rates climbed and grades at Los Pelambres got better.
Higher costs helped the stock stay up. Q1 cash costs before by-product credits increased 17% from a year ago to $2.77 a pound, with by-product credits up 104% to $1.69 a pound. Net cash costs dropped 30% to $1.08 a pound. That’s lower than the company’s 2026 net cash cost guidance, which remained at $1.15-$1.35 a pound.
Antofagasta shares traded at GBX 3,852, off about 14% from the 52-week high at GBX 4,475 and sitting at more than double this year’s low of GBX 1,811, according to Google Finance. The stock has little cushion if the next production figure misses. Q2 production is due July 15.
