SYDNEY, March 17, 2026, 10:50 AEDT
ANZ Group Holdings Limited grabbed attention again Tuesday, with shares finishing Monday at A$37.45, a gain of 0.67%. Investors are eyeing the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy move later today. The stock remains under its all-time high of A$40.20, set on Feb. 12 following a first-quarter update that topped forecasts. 1
Timing is critical here. The RBA will deliver its decision ahead of ANZ’s upcoming market update. Earlier this month, the bank shifted its half-year results release forward to May 1, previously set for May 7. Interim dividend dates were also advanced. 2
ANZ reported a first-quarter cash profit of A$1.94 billion. Expenses dropped 8%. The group’s net interest margin ticked up 2 basis points to 1.56%. “The productivity push was well underway,” Chief Executive Nuno Matos said, as the bank moved to cut duplication and streamline operations. 3
The numbers did the talking in February. ANZ shares shot up as much as 8.25% to A$40.20 after the update, Reuters noted. Citigroup’s Thomas Strong pointed to a “largely driven” beat, crediting quicker-than-expected cost progress. For Jefferies’ Andrew Lyons, he flagged the “real test” ahead: what happens to ANZ’s margin once housing growth settles down. 4
Attention turns back to rates now. The Reserve Bank of Australia is set to release its policy statement on March 17 at 2:30 p.m. AEDT, holding the cash rate target steady at 3.85%. Last week, Reuters noted that markets were assigning roughly a 75% probability to a 25 basis-point hike, which would bring the rate up to 4.1%. 2
Belinda Allen, who leads Australian economics at Commonwealth Bank, said “the balance of probabilities has shifted” toward rate hikes in March and May, citing the latest RBA signals. January headline inflation came in at 3.8%, according to Reuters, while trimmed mean—RBA’s preferred core measure—was reported at 3.4%. Both figures remain above the central bank’s 2%-3% band. 5
Peers are providing some clues. Westpac surged to a record A$42.13 after its February quarterly profit topped expectations, while NAB notched an all-time high of A$47.96 after reporting first-quarter cash earnings up 16%. The moves are part of a sector-wide rerating for Australia’s major banks. 6
The next catalyst for the stock is approaching. ANZ announced back on March 4 it was moving its interim ex-dividend date to May 12, with the record date following on May 13, coinciding with an earlier release of its half-year results. 7
The risks aren’t one-sided. Higher rates might give banks a margin boost, but the oil shock rattling central banks is also stoking inflation and market jitters. Deutsche Bank’s Phil O’Donaghoe cautioned that a worsening conflict could still make the RBA hit pause. Should the RBA stand pat, traders betting on a near-term rate hike through ANZ stock could back off just as fast. 8
Monday’s finish finds ANZ wedged between February’s solid numbers and a looming RBA call on Tuesday. Getting back to A$40 might hinge more on the central bank’s 2:30 p.m. move than anything ANZ puts out this week 1 .
