SYDNEY, March 19, 2026, 10:18 AEDT
ANZ Group Holdings shares slipped 1.07% to A$37.13 on Wednesday, underperforming an Australian market that ended up 0.31%. Investors weighed the bank’s decision to reprice mortgage products in the wake of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s recent rate hike. The stock moved in a range from A$36.60 to A$37.25.
ANZ had been surging since its first-quarter cash profit topped expectations, driving the stock to a record in February. But now the RBA’s 25-basis-point hike — a quarter-point, bringing the cash rate to 4.10% after a close 5-4 vote — puts the spotlight on whether rising rates will pad bank revenue or start squeezing loan demand and fueling bad debts.
ANZ on Tuesday announced a 0.25 percentage point increase to variable rates for Australian home loans, set to take effect March 27. “We recognise the pressure higher home lending rates can place on household budgets,” said Pedro Rodeia, group executive for Australia Retail. For an owner-occupier with a A$500,000 loan, the bank estimates repayments will jump by about A$80 per month. ANZ
ANZ wasn’t the only lender to push rates higher for borrowers—NAB, Commonwealth Bank, and Westpac all rolled out matching hikes following the RBA move. But in Wednesday’s session, ANZ lagged its big rivals. Commonwealth Bank climbed 0.55%, Westpac was up 0.10%, while NAB dipped 0.48%.
Policy tension hasn’t eased up. “The domestic data flow alone justified a rate hike today,” said Belinda Allen, economist at Commonwealth Bank, just after the decision. She pointed out that the Iran war is adding new wrinkles to the inflation outlook. Reuters
Another wrinkle came from broker notes. Finance News Network, quoting Morgan Stanley’s Richard Wiles, flagged that the quarter-point hike may be a game-changer for the big four banks. Wiles warned ANZ shares could tumble as much as 21% if bank valuations take a hard hit. On a different front, StreetInsider reported Goldman Sachs analyst Brendan Sproules cut his rating on ANZ to neutral from buy on March 17.
ANZ is urging investors to pay attention to CEO Nuno Matos’s ongoing revamp. Back in February, Reuters said first-quarter cash profit beat forecasts, with costs down 8%. Still, Jefferies analyst Andrew Lyons flagged a key issue: “the real test though, in our view, will be how it manages its net interest margin when it gets back to system housing growth,” he said. Net interest margin refers to the gap between what banks make on loans and what they shell out for funding. Reuters
The path forward looks tight. As Reuters noted Tuesday, the RBA’s split decision lands with core inflation stuck at 3.4%—still above the central bank’s 2%-3% band. Morgan Stanley, meanwhile, sketches downside cases: slow loan growth, higher bad-loan charges, and possible ANZ earnings cuts between 5.5% and 10%. If oil prices slip and the central bank steps back, margin pressure could be contained. Otherwise, the shares may stay under pressure.
The next formal update isn’t far off. ANZ shifted up its fiscal 2026 half-year results to May 1, while the interim dividend will go ex on May 12, with a record date landing a day later, May 13.
