Sydney, March 4, 2026, 16:57 (AEDT) — After-hours
- ANZ shares closed down 3.7% at A$37.94, underperforming the broader market
- Australia’s GDP data revived May rate-hike pricing as war-driven oil moves stirred inflation worry
- Investors now eye the RBA’s March policy meeting and ANZ’s May interim report
ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ.AX) ended down 3.7% at A$37.94 on Wednesday, its biggest drop among Australia’s major lenders as the market sold banks into a risk-off session. The stock is about 7% below its 12-month high and ANZ’s interim report is pencilled in for May 7. 1
The move came as fresh economic data and a jumpy energy backdrop pushed investors back into rate maths. Australia’s economy expanded 0.8% in the December quarter and 2.6% over the year, its fastest annual pace in nearly three years, even as the quarterly reading missed forecasts, according to official figures cited by Reuters. “Today’s data will keep the RBA on high alert,” said Stephen Smith, a partner at Deloitte Access Economics, while IG analyst Tony Sycamore pointed to households saving more as “cost-of-living pressures are still biting.” 2
The broader market was heavy. The S&P/ASX 200 finished down 1.9% in its worst fall since February, with all 11 sectors lower as investors fretted about a drawn-out Middle East war, higher oil prices and the knock-on for inflation. 3
Other big banks fell too, though not as sharply as ANZ. Commonwealth Bank of Australia slipped 1.2%, Westpac lost 1.6% and National Australia Bank fell 2.0% on the day, based on delayed prices. 4
The nerves were not just local. Asian stocks slid hard as investors dumped risk and weighed the chance that a widening Middle East conflict could turn into an oil supply shock that keeps inflation sticky and interest rates higher for longer. 5
Bank weakness has been building through the week as war headlines and energy moves seep into pricing. “The ASX is reflecting a classic geopolitical risk premium,” Marc Jocum, senior product and investment strategist at Global X ETFs, said in a Reuters report on Monday, pointing to banks and cyclicals lagging while energy and gold outperformed. ETF Shares CEO Cliff Man warned the uncertainty can eat into business confidence and credit demand. 6
But the setup is messy for lenders. Higher rates can lift margins, yet an oil-driven squeeze on households and businesses can cool borrowing and, later, feed bad-debt risk — the part that tends to arrive with a lag.
For Thursday’s session, traders will keep one eye on crude and another on offshore equity leads. Any shift in oil’s run-up, or signs it is stabilising, could change the mood quickly.
The next clear domestic signpost is the Reserve Bank of Australia’s March 16–17 meeting, with markets watching for guidance on whether May is really in play. 7
Until then, ANZ’s share price is likely to trade as a proxy for two things: the rate path, and whether the current spike in geopolitical risk fades into noise or hardens into a lasting inflation shock.
