Sydney, May 13, 2026, 05:12 AEST
- ANZ closed out Tuesday at A$35.14, dropping 2.12%. CBA, Westpac and NAB also finished in the red, pointing to a broader sector move, not just an ANZ story.
- Budget risk worries are no longer theoretical—confirmation landed that negative gearing gets capped to new builds, with capital gains tax rules also shifting from July 2027.
- Bulls point to ANZ’s better May numbers and solid capital standing. On the other side, bears zero in on softening mortgage growth, policy overhang, and the threat of rates staying higher for longer.
ANZ Group Holdings slid to A$35.14 by the end of Tuesday, shedding 2.12% as it traded 5.27 million shares—well past its usual turnover. The selling hit all of Australia’s major banks: Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, and National Australia Bank ended lower as well.
This wasn’t about any fresh issue at ANZ. The S&P/ASX 200 shed 31.1 points, or 0.36%, closing at 8,670.7. The market’s verdict was clear: heavy selling hit the big banks as investors braced for the federal budget, eyeing potential tweaks to negative gearing and capital gains tax.
That worry just landed in black and white. Starting July next year, the budget will only allow negative gearing on new residential builds and ditches the 50% capital gains tax discount, swapping it for inflation-based indexation. Negative gearing lets investors offset rental losses against other taxable income. For banks, though, the main concern skips the tax jargon — what matters is how these tweaks might reshape mortgage demand from property investors.
That’s the backdrop for ANZ’s chart reacting ahead of any shift in the earnings outlook. With housing credit a big driver for the big-four banks, IG market analyst Tony Sycamore pointed out Tuesday that residential mortgages account for about 45% to 50% of major bank assets. That leaves them on the hook if changes in policy hit property values, spark mortgage stress, or push up bad debts.
A technical quirk showed up in ANZ’s latest trading. The stock went ex-dividend on May 11, tied to its 83-cent interim payout, with investors on record by May 12 set to receive payment on July 1. After the ex-dividend date, new holders miss out on that dividend—which tends to muddy the chart right around then.
Rates are weighing, too. The RBA bumped its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35% on May 5—a basis point equals one-hundredth of a percentage point. Yes, higher rates can boost net interest margin, the gap between what banks make on loans and pay out on deposits, but that comes at a cost: borrowers get squeezed, and writing fresh loans becomes tougher.
Prediction markets aren’t bonds, but they do give a glimpse at where speculative risk is positioned. On Polymarket’s June RBA decision market, “No Change” carried a 78% probability, leaving “Increase” at 22%. Traders there aren’t bracing for a fourth straight hike right now. Still, that doesn’t take the risk off the table—just means another policy jolt isn’t the default view. Polymarket
ANZ turned in numbers that bulls can point to. Statutory profit for the half through March 31 hit A$3.65 billion, with cash profit—ANZ’s preferred metric—coming in at A$3.78 billion. That cash profit, which leaves out non-core items, jumped 14% over the previous half if you strip out significant items. Return on tangible equity climbed to 11.6%. As for CET1, the key capital ratio, ANZ reported 12.39%.
Management struck a solid, if cautious, note. Chief Executive Nuno Matos pointed out that consumer savings remain elevated and “hardship levels have not changed yet.” Still, he flagged pressure on discretionary spending from inflation, and noted that smaller businesses are already grappling with higher input costs. Matos said ANZ’s wholesale exposure in the Middle East stands at less than 1%, with 83% of wholesale exposures rated investment grade. ANZ
Bulls argue ANZ isn’t simply biding time for the cycle to turn. According to Matos, the bank slashed costs by 9% from the previous half, remains committed to folding Suncorp Bank in by June 2027 at the latest, and continues pushing ahead on risk-management fixes. That’s key with loan growth crawling: these internal moves help shore up earnings even as revenue momentum stalls.
The bear case bites quicker, and it’s rougher. No one’s disputing the May profit numbers, but the real question is what unfolds for mortgage demand—and collateral—once the tax reset kicks in. CommBank’s own budget breakdown flagged a risk of short-term turbulence and house prices dropping, trimming its 2026 national home price outlook to 3% from 5%. That shaves roughly 3% off cumulative price expectations over the next three years.
That’s where sentiment sits. Bulls point to ANZ’s tighter capital, disciplined costs, and a dividend that’s still holding up. Bears aren’t convinced: they’re focused on policy risks for housing investors, the RBA’s unfinished inflation battle, and a market that can dump all four banks if credit growth starts to look shaky.
Heath Moss at HLM Investments summed it up: the budget brought “little immediate upside for rate-sensitive sectors.” Not much surprise, then, as ANZ, NAB, Westpac, and CBA slipped, while the miners caught a bid on commodity strength. Business Recorder
ANZ’s next step isn’t about a single session—it’s about what the data shows. Should arrears hold steady and mortgage demand merely dip at the margins, the bank’s streamlined cost base offers support. On the other hand, if the budget hit drags on investor credit or lifts bad debts, that 12.39% capital ratio and the 83-cent dividend shift from being drivers to acting as buffers.
