SYDNEY, June 21, 2026, 03:06 (AEST)
- The S&P/ASX 200 closed out the week up 0.3%. The index had started strong but lost much of the early momentum.
- BHP dropped 5.6% to A$61.40 as fresh costs at the Jansen potash project in Canada hit shares, dragging the materials sector 4.03% lower on Friday.
- Australia’s May inflation data comes out June 24, followed by the latest labour-market numbers a day later.
Australian shares eked out a weekly rise, but heavy selling in miners on Friday and wariness over the Strait of Hormuz put the market at risk of another choppy start on Monday. The benchmark slipped 0.92% in the last session, breaking a four-day win streak.
ASX 200 jumped 1.25% Monday after early optimism around a U.S.-Iran deal. But that move is starting to look shaky. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said Saturday Hormuz was closed. U.S. Central Command said 55 merchant ships passed through with over 17 million barrels of oil.
ASX 200 slipped 82.4 points Friday to close at 8,828.7, with the All Ordinaries down 0.87% at 9,047.3. “It’s that fall in the mining sector that’s making the difference,” said Moomoo strategist Michael McCarthy to AAP. Rio Tinto and Fortescue both finished lower. Financials rose 1.4% for the week, but energy shed more than 7%. CSL jumped more than 7% on Friday. Morningstar
BHP pulled the market lower. The miner lifted its cost estimate for Jansen Stage 2 to US$6.9 billion from US$4.9 billion and warned of a US$2.3 billion charge. Potash, which is mainly used in fertiliser, is at the centre. “BHP’s slide is a direct reaction to climbing development costs at its Jansen potash project,” said William Taylor, chief operating officer and portfolio manager at ETF Shares. Reuters
Rates are still a big pressure point. The Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate steady at 4.35% on Tuesday. The central bank had already raised rates three times by a quarter point each this year. Governor Michele Bullock said inflation is still too high and signaled that more hikes could come.
Consumer price data is due Wednesday, with labour numbers out Thursday. Interest-rate swaps put the odds of a rate hike in August at about 25%, and a two-thirds chance by the end of the year. If inflation comes in hot, property and consumer stocks could get hit. Softer jobs numbers would focus investors on growth risk.
S&P/ASX 200’s latest rebalance goes live before the open on Monday, swapping out a handful of names. Elevra Lithium, Electro Optic Systems, FireFly Metals, Kingsgate Consolidated, and Minerals 260 join the benchmark. Dropped: Guzman y Gomez, IDP Education, SiteMinder, Temple & Webster, and WEB Travel. The move could bump up turnover as index funds shift positions.
The risk cuts both ways. If there’s a real stoppage at Hormuz, oil prices could jump, inflation fears could come back, and energy producers would benefit, but transport and consumer names would take a hit. If ships keep moving and inflation stays soft, markets could move the other way. A tougher picture would be if oil moves up while jobs data weakens. BHP’s trouble executing at Jansen is a separate drag on miners.
Energy names have to offset mining weakness on Monday, with BHP in focus after last week. The index put up a thin 0.3% gain for the week, so there’s not much of a buffer ahead of local inflation numbers that could drive the next move.
