SYDNEY, March 27, 2026, 06:39 AEDT
Australian shares were set to open lower on Friday, with ASX 200 futures — a guide to the opening call — down 63 points, or 0.7%, to 8,501 after Brent, the global oil benchmark, pushed above $105 a barrel and global equities slid as hopes of a quick Iran ceasefire faded. 1
That matters now in Australia because higher crude feeds quickly into fuel bills and inflation expectations. The Reserve Bank of Australia has warned a longer Middle East war could hurt growth, while the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow lane that carries about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas — remains effectively shut. 2
On Wall Street, selling picked up through Thursday afternoon. By 2:20 p.m. ET, the Dow was down 428.89 points, the S&P 500 had lost 1.5% and the Nasdaq had dropped 2.07%, leaving the tech-heavy index more than 10% below its Oct. 29 closing high, the line traders use to define a correction. 3
Energy held up better than most sectors, but communications services and technology dragged. Meta fell almost 8%, Alphabet lost 3% and Nvidia was down 3.7%, a sign the retreat had spread well beyond the most obvious oil-sensitive corners of the market. 3
The selling spread across regions and asset classes. Reuters said the pan-European STOXX 600 fell 0.64%, Japan’s Nikkei lost 0.3% and South Korea’s KOSPI slid 3.2%, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.37%; Bloomberg said a weak $44 billion Treasury sale added to the bond retreat as Brent approached $109. 4
The turn was abrupt. Just a day earlier, stocks rose and Brent settled at $102.22 after markets latched onto signs Tehran was reviewing a U.S. ceasefire proposal, but that relief trade unraveled after Iran said there were no talks to wind down the war. 5
Doug Beath, global equity strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, called it the “fog of war.” Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities, said stocks fell as oil resumed its climb, which helps explain why traders flipped from relief to defense in less than 24 hours. 3
The macro backdrop is hardening as well. Reuters reported the OECD now sees the conflict knocking the global economy off a stronger growth path, while traders have fully priced out any U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut this year; in Australia, RBA assistant governor Christopher Kent has warned policymakers must stop the first oil shock from turning into lasting inflation. 3
But the biggest uncertainty is still oil. Barclays said a prolonged Hormuz closure could strip 13 million to 14 million barrels a day from supply, and Reuters reported options traders are building much larger positions on Brent reaching $150 by the end of April if the waterway stays blocked. 6
A quicker diplomatic turn could still cool the move. Barclays’ base case is for traffic through Hormuz to normalize by early April, consistent with Brent averaging about $85 this year, which suggests Friday’s Asia session will be driven less by company news than by the next headline out of Washington, Tehran or the Gulf. 6
