SYDNEY, June 30, 2026, 02:07 AEST
- BHP ended Monday at A$59.82, up 1.41%, but volume ran about 13% below its average.
- The stock beat the S&P/ASX 200’s 0.68% gain and Rio Tinto’s 0.26% rise, but stayed 9.3% under its 52-week high.
- Copper is still the bull case; Jansen potash costs and Port Hedland labour risk are the near-term checks before Brandon Craig starts as CEO on July 1.
At the dateline, Tuesday’s ASX cash session had not started. ASX normal trading runs from 09:59:45 to 16:00 Sydney time, and June 30 is not one of the exchange’s listed 2026 public-holiday closures.
BHP Group Ltd ASX:BHP closed Monday at A$59.82, up 1.41%, on 8.92 million shares. That was below its 10.30 million average, a thin-volume bounce after a month in which investors have started marking down the price of cost risk again.
| Stock/index | Monday close | 1-day move | Volume vs avg volume | Gap to 52-week high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BHP Group Ltd ASX:BHP | A$59.82 | +1.41% | 8.92 mln / 10.30 mln | -9.3% |
| Rio Tinto Ltd ASX:RIO | A$174.10 | +0.26% | 737,020 / 1.45 mln | -11.1% |
| Fortescue Ltd ASX:FMG | A$19.52 | +2.36% | 4.55 mln / 6.34 mln | -16.5% |
| S&P/ASX 200 (INDEXASX:XJO) | 8,823.40 | +0.68% | n/a | n/a |
Quote and volume data are from Google Finance and index data are from MarketWatch; gap calculations compare the Monday close with each stock’s 52-week high.
Monday’s gain did not repair the Jansen hit. BHP settled at A$61.40 on June 19 after a 5.6% fall tied to a potash charge, so Monday’s close was still 2.6% below that post-selloff price. The S&P/ASX 200 was down about 0.1% over the same span, from 8,828.70 on June 19 to 8,823.40 on Monday.
The Jansen numbers explain the lag. BHP raised the estimated cost of Jansen Stage 2 in Canada to US$6.9 billion from US$4.9 billion and flagged a charge of up to US$2.3 billion, while keeping its FY2027 capital spending forecast at US$11 billion.
William Taylor, COO and portfolio manager at ETF Shares, told Reuters the June 19 share slide was a “direct reaction” to Jansen costs and the near-term “capital intensity”. Elan Miller, deputy portfolio manager at Blackwattle Investment Partners, later told Reuters: “Cost control is definitely a priority.” Reuters
Glyn Lawcock, Barrenjoey’s head of resources research, said “Capex increases are on everyone’s mind”. CLSA analyst Baden Moore said BHP’s “valuation premium” gave it room to pursue M&A, but the market price says investors want spending discipline first. Reuters
Craig has used the same language. In BHP’s June 26 leadership update, he said the operating environment was “increasingly complex” and that BHP had to “deploy capital to the right opportunities in a disciplined way”. BHP also split its Americas role into North America and South America, named Jessica Farrell as North America president from July 1 and interim South America president, and put Copper South Australia under Geraldine Slattery. BHP
The commodity board is mixed, which is why the stock reaction matters. Copper still carries the valuation story, but it has come off its high. Iron ore is holding just over US$100 a tonne, not enough by itself to take Jansen risk out of the price.
| Commodity | Latest noted price | 1-day move | 1-month move | 1-year move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper | US$6.09/lb | -0.88% | -6.65% | +20.45% |
| Iron ore | US$100.33/t | -0.04% | -8.18% | +6.18% |
Commodity data are from Trading Economics; iron ore’s listed daily move is for June 26, with the page updated on June 29.
BHP says copper made up more than half of its first-half FY2026 underlying earnings for the first time and that it is on track to produce 1.9 million to 2.0 million tonnes of copper in FY2026. That is why investors still pay for the copper shift, even as they mark down potash execution.
Port Hedland adds another near-term risk. Reuters reported that unions at BHP’s iron ore operations there have threatened coordinated strikes if talks on July 7 fail. The talks fall less than a week after Craig’s July 1 start.
