London, June 29, 2026, 09:10 BST
- BP traded up 0.26% at 470.60p early in London, lagging Shell, which gained 0.45%, with the quotes delayed as of 08:55 BST.
- BP dropped 12.19% in the past month, worse than Shell, which slipped 8.92%. Still, BP shows a 28.68% gain for the year.
- Brent was around $73 following last week’s 10.6% drop, with BP squeezed between Gulf risks and weaker price outlooks.
BP PLC (LON:BP) ticked up on Monday. But gains lagged Shell (LON:SHEL) as traders continued to give BP a weaker read, keeping a discount in place over its higher debt load, despite oil pushing higher after new U.S.-Iran strikes.
BP was at 470.60 pence, gaining 1.20p, or 0.26%, as of 08:55 BST after London opened. Shell added 13p to 2,911p, up 0.45% at the same time. BP volume stood at about 2.02 million shares, only 4% of the 65-day average. Shell saw 272,110 shares change hands, roughly 3% of its 65-day average.
| London-listed oil major | Last price | Day move | 5-day move | 1-month move | 3-month move | 1-year move | Market value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BP (LON:BP) | 470.60p | up 0.26% | down 5.92% | off 12.19% | down 21.83% | up 28.68% | £72.52 bln |
| Shell (LON:SHEL) | 2,911.00p | up 0.45% | off 3.24% | down 8.92% | down 18.08% | up 14.00% | £160.87 bln |
The peer gap is the key number here. BP outperformed Shell by about 15 percentage points over the past year. But in the recent oil drop, BP lost more ground. Now, the market isn’t only focused on spot crude. It’s also watching how quickly BP fixes its balance sheet after it cut buybacks.
Brent crude futures added 45 cents, or 0.6%, to $72.44 a barrel by 0627 GMT, according to Reuters. Brent lost 10.6% last week, its third straight weekly decline, after crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz hit the highest level since the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran started in late February.
ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said oil traders looked “too optimistic” on Persian Gulf supply coming back. They warned, “This complacency is odd and clearly leaves significant upside risk if the supply recovery proves slow.” WRAL News
| Oil-market signal | Latest read |
|---|---|
| Brent crude Monday morning | $72.44/bbl, up 0.6% |
| WTI crude Monday morning | $70.05/bbl, up 1.2% |
| Brent change last week | -10.6% |
| Barclays Brent 2026 outlook | $96/bbl, down from $100 |
| Barclays Brent 2027 outlook | $85/bbl, down from $88 |
| UBS Brent forecast, end-September/end-December | $85/bbl, down from $105/$95 |
Barclays PLC (LON:BARC) trimmed its Brent price outlook on Friday, citing higher oil flows through Hormuz. The bank is still calling for a third-quarter shortfall, saying supply isn’t keeping up. UBS Group AG (SWX:UBSG) also moved its Brent forecast down to $85 a barrel for both end-September and end-December.
That’s the squeeze BP is facing. If Brent prices rebound, earnings get a lift. But if Brent drops closer to the low $70s, it’s harder for BP to speed up debt payments or bring buybacks back sooner. BP paused its $750 million quarterly buyback program in February, saying the cash would now go to pay down debt. The company stuck to its $14 billion–$18 billion net debt target for 2027. Meanwhile, Shell and Exxon Mobil NYSE:XOM kept buybacks steady at the same time, according to Reuters.
Morningstar’s Allen Good, CFA, said after BP’s first-quarter report that speeding up debt reduction could ease pressure on the company’s shares. Good noted BP’s $3.2 billion in earnings last quarter came in above forecasts, but cash flow was hurt by a $6.0 billion working-capital hit linked to seasonal moves and higher prices.
BP’s new stake in ADNOC’s Bab Gas Cap project gives the shares a growth angle, though it won’t move the needle right away. The oil major said June 25 it bought 10% in the Abu Dhabi project, marking its first upstream gas move in that country. The field could put out as much as 1.5 billion cubic feet of gas daily. BP will head up asset operations for the Bab Oil Field.
Shares remain far from the March high. BP has traded between 363.00p and 609.40p over the past year, and early Monday the stock was trading around 23% below that top. Shell’s 52-week range sits at 2,541.71p to 3,758.50p.
BP reports earnings next on Aug. 4. Investors will get a look then at the full second quarter to see if higher prices, any working-capital swing, and progress in Abu Dhabi gas help close the gap with Shell.
