Houston, Feb 18, 2026, 13:01 CST — Regular session
Brent crude pushed past $70 a barrel on Wednesday, adding $2.77, or 4.11%, to hit $70.19 as traders reacted to renewed supply jitters out of the Middle East. U.S. WTI wasn’t far behind, gaining $2.67, up 4.29%, to settle at $64.93. 1
This shift lands hard, given that only yesterday, traders were positioned for less drama—pricing in diplomacy, dialing down risk. Now, it’s back to quick pivots, every headline a potential trade.
It’s a tough spot for consumers and hedgers. The oil market is stacking risk premium back on — traders are paying more just in case supply takes a hit, despite physical barrels still flowing.
Traders kept a close eye on potential supply fallout as tensions between the U.S. and Iran flared, with the Russia-Ukraine situation adding another layer to the day’s nerves. “Solely driven by geopolitics,” was how Andrew Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates summed up the price action. SEB’s Bjarne Schieldrop noted Iran “has time to negotiate in calmness.” Eurasia Group, cited by Reuters, sees a 65% chance of U.S. strikes against Iran before the end of April. 2
Iran briefly closed the Strait of Hormuz for several hours on Tuesday, according to state media, following earlier statements about a partial shutdown due to “security precautions” during Revolutionary Guards exercises. It wasn’t immediately clear from the reports if the key waterway had resumed normal activity. 3
Traders are watching U.S. force movements as a real-time gauge. According to Business Insider, the Navy is moving more warships into the Middle East—a second carrier strike group is now on its way, and a defense official pointed to an expanded fleet in the area. 4
Still, diplomacy remains in play. Iran’s foreign minister, following discussions in Geneva, told Reuters that Tehran and Washington had struck an understanding on the core “guiding principles” of the nuclear standoff. On Thursday, though, Iranian media pointed to joint naval exercises with Russia in the Sea of Oman and the northern Indian Ocean. 5
The market turned fast on Tuesday. Brent April futures slid 1.8% to $67.39 late in U.S. trading, with traders zeroed in on developments in the U.S.-Iran negotiations and keeping an eye on the Russia-Ukraine situation, too. 6
Ukraine-Russia negotiations in Geneva wrapped up after two days on Wednesday, yielding no progress. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy accused Russia of attempting to “drag out negotiations.” For traders, the prospect of further pressure on Russian exports remains a bullish factor for crude. 7
The risk isn’t hard to spot. Should talks progress and the shipping lane remains incident-free, that premium can vanish quickly, with prices just as liable to retreat as they were to surge in the first place.
Traders are eyeing the next major number: U.S. crude and product stockpiles, still a market-moving data drop. The Energy Information Administration schedules its Weekly Petroleum Status Report for Thursday, Feb. 19, with releases at 12:00 p.m. and 2:00 p.m. Eastern, pushed back by Presidents Day. Short-term sentiment in crude, gasoline, and distillates often swings sharply after this report. 8
