London, February 17, 2026, 17:57 (GMT) — Regular session.
- Brent down about 2% near $67 a barrel in afternoon trade
- Traders reprice Middle East risk as U.S.-Iran nuclear talks show movement
- OPEC+ supply plans and delayed U.S. inventory data are next catalysts
Brent crude futures slid on Tuesday, trading near $67 a barrel, as signs of progress in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks helped trim a geopolitical risk premium that had held prices up in recent sessions. By 17:57 GMT, Brent was down $1.52, or 2.21%, at $67.13, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was off 1.16% at $62.02. Investing
The pullback matters because the oil market has been trading the headline tape more than the balance sheet. Diplomacy in Geneva, sanctions enforcement and fears around key shipping lanes have been swinging prices in both directions, often within hours.
That choppiness is colliding with another live issue: supply. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia — known as OPEC+ — are leaning toward a decision at a March 1 meeting to resume output increases from April, after a three-month pause, sources have told Reuters. “Increased Iranian tension could drive Brent to $80 a barrel. Fading tension would drop it back to $60 a barrel,” SEB analysts wrote. Reuters
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said the United States and Iran had reached an understanding on the main “guiding principles” of their nuclear talks, but added that this “does not mean a deal is imminent.” “Oil prices are likely to stay volatile, with sharp two-way swings driven by diplomatic signals rather than pure demand-supply fundamentals,” said Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of SS WealthStreet. Reuters
Traders have been watching U.S.-Iran relations closely because a flare-up could threaten flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Oman and Iran that carries roughly a fifth of the oil consumed globally. Iran and major Gulf producers ship much of their crude through the strait, mainly to Asia.
Supply news is tugging the other way. Russia’s Interfax reported output was rising gradually at Kazakhstan’s giant Tengiz field after an outage in January, Reuters reported. Separately, peace talks between Russia and Ukraine were in focus, as any settlement could eventually ease sanctions and shift Russian crude back toward mainstream markets.
Citi said late Monday that geopolitics could keep oil supported in the near term, but it sees scope for lower prices if diplomatic deals land later this year. The bank said Brent has rallied from around $60 a barrel to near $70 over the past month, partly on tighter enforcement of U.S. sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil and other supply disruptions. “Both Iran and Russia-Ukraine deals happen by or during the summer of this year,” Citi wrote, a scenario it said could pull Brent down to $60–$62 a barrel and squeeze diesel and gasoline “cracks” — the refining margin from turning crude into fuels. Reuters
But the market is leaning hard on politics, and that can snap back quickly. A breakdown in the talks, fresh attacks on energy infrastructure or any hint of disruption in Hormuz could push prices higher again, while faster-than-expected supply returns or a clearer path to more OPEC+ barrels could deepen the slide.
Next up, traders will watch for follow-through from the Geneva talks and for clues ahead of the March 1 OPEC+ meeting. They also have U.S. inventory data on the radar: the U.S. Energy Information Administration said its Weekly Petroleum Status Report will be released on Thursday, February 19, at 12:00 p.m. and 2:00 p.m. Eastern time because the U.S. federal government was closed on Monday, February 16. Eia
