New York, May 6, 2026, 07:14 ET
- ARK Invest’s latest crypto forecast puts bitcoin at the center of a potential $28 trillion digital-asset market by 2030.
- Bitcoin was trading near $82,412 early Wednesday, after fresh gains and renewed inflows into U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs.
- The bullish call comes as volatility still cuts both ways: Strategy, the largest corporate bitcoin holder, reported a $12.54 billion quarterly loss tied to the slump in bitcoin prices.
ARK Invest, the asset manager led by Cathie Wood, has renewed one of the market’s boldest bitcoin calls, forecasting that the token could help drive the crypto market to $28 trillion by 2030 as institutional buyers return to the trade.
The timing is the point. Bitcoin has climbed back above $80,000 after a rough stretch, while U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds — listed funds that give investors exposure to bitcoin without directly holding the token — drew $467.35 million in inflows on Tuesday, FXStreet reported, citing SoSoValue data.
ARK’s “Big Ideas 2026” report, its 10th annual flagship research publication, says bitcoin is maturing as institutional ownership grows. The bitcoin section, authored by ARK digital-assets analyst David Puell, says the token is “showing signs of structural maturity” as it evolves as a store of value. Ark Invest
Forbes Japan, citing ARK’s report, said the firm expects bitcoin’s market value to rise from nearly $2 trillion to $16 trillion by 2030, implying a compound annual growth rate — yearly growth averaged over time — of about 63%. ARK also sees the broader crypto market reaching $28 trillion, with bitcoin taking roughly 70% of the market and smart-contract networks such as Ethereum and Solana accounting for much of the rest.
Wood has also restated ARK’s price framework for bitcoin. Crypto Times reported that she told The Rollup podcast ARK’s 2030 base case is $730,000, while its bull case is $1.5 million; she added that “the bitcoin bull market is still intact,” with better liquidity seen as the next trigger. CRYPTO TIMES
That is not a new instinct at ARK. In a 2025 note, Puell wrote that ARK’s 2030 bitcoin targets were about $300,000 in a bear case, $710,000 in a base case and $1.5 million in a bull case, based on assumptions about addressable markets and bitcoin supply approaching 20.5 million coins by 2030.
The competitive backdrop has shifted since the first U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs opened the door to a wider investor base. Reuters reported that Strategy CEO Phong Le said bitcoin adoption continued to grow in 2026 and pointed to Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and Citi announcing bitcoin ETFs, trading, custody and lending services.
Wood’s thesis also leans on bitcoin holding its lead over rival digital assets. In ARK’s view, Ethereum and Solana remain part of the smart-contract network market — blockchains used to run apps and automated financial agreements — but bitcoin is still the main institutional asset in crypto.
There is a harder side to the story. Bitcoin is still exposed to risk-off markets, regulatory shifts and ETF outflows, and ARK itself warns that its forward-looking statements rely on assumptions and involve known and unknown risks. The firm says its content should not be treated as investment advice.
Strategy’s results show why the forecast remains contentious. The company held 818,334 bitcoins as of May 3, Reuters reported, but posted a first-quarter net loss of $12.54 billion after bitcoin’s decline hit the value of its holdings; Reuters also said bitcoin had lost 7% in 2026 despite its partial rebound.
For now, the market is giving ARK’s call another hearing, not a pass. A sustained move above the low-$80,000 range and continued ETF inflows would strengthen the case. A fresh retreat would put the $730,000 and $1.5 million targets back where they have often lived: as long-range bets, far from the tape.
