New York, May 6, 2026, 07:14 ET
- According to ARK Invest, bitcoin could anchor a digital-asset market worth $28 trillion by 2030, the firm said in its latest crypto outlook.
- Bitcoin hovered around $82,412 early Wednesday, buoyed by new highs and a surge of inflows into U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs.
- Bullish sentiment persists, but volatility hasn’t left the picture. Strategy—the biggest corporate holder of bitcoin—just posted a $12.54 billion loss for the quarter, dragged down by falling bitcoin prices.
ARK Invest, headed by Cathie Wood, is sticking to its bullish bitcoin outlook—this time projecting that the digital asset could push the entire crypto market up to $28 trillion by 2030. The call comes as institutional interest circles back to crypto trades.
Timing matters here. Bitcoin is trading over $80,000 again after its recent slide, and U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs just pulled in $467.35 million in fresh inflows Tuesday, according to FXStreet, which cited SoSoValue.
According to ARK’s “Big Ideas 2026” — the firm’s tenth main research report — bitcoin appears to be hitting a new stage of development as more institutions come on board. David Puell, ARK’s digital-assets analyst, wrote in the bitcoin section that the cryptocurrency is “showing signs of structural maturity” as it takes shape as a store of value. Ark Invest
According to ARK’s report, as highlighted by Forbes Japan, the firm forecasts bitcoin’s market value hitting $16 trillion by 2030, up from its current figure near $2 trillion. That projects a compound annual growth rate around 63%. Looking at the bigger picture, ARK puts the total crypto market at $28 trillion, with bitcoin grabbing about 70% of that share. The remainder, ARK suggests, will be driven in large part by smart-contract platforms like Ethereum and Solana.
Wood’s updated price outlook for bitcoin hasn’t changed much: speaking on The Rollup podcast, she reiterated ARK’s 2030 base case target of $730,000, with a bullish scenario set at $1.5 million, according to Crypto Times. She also described the bitcoin bull run as “still intact,” and pointed to improved liquidity as the likely next catalyst. CRYPTO TIMES
ARK’s been here before. Back in a 2025 note, Puell laid out the firm’s 2030 bitcoin price scenarios: $300,000 if things go badly, $710,000 as the middle ground, and $1.5 million at the high end. Those numbers hinge on estimates for addressable markets and a projected bitcoin supply closing in on 20.5 million by 2030.
With the arrival of the first U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, the investor landscape looks different. According to Reuters, Strategy CEO Phong Le said bitcoin adoption kept accelerating in 2026, as Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Citi rolled out their own bitcoin ETFs, plus trading, custody, and lending offerings.
Wood’s argument assumes bitcoin keeps its edge over other digital coins. According to ARK, Ethereum and Solana are still in the smart-contract network space — these blockchains run various apps and automate financial deals — but bitcoin stands out as the dominant institutional asset in crypto.
But there’s more pressure behind the scenes. Bitcoin faces hazards from risk-off sentiment, shifting regulations, and ETF outflows. ARK, for its part, flags that any forward-looking statements rest on assumptions and carry risks—both anticipated and unforeseen. The firm also notes its material isn’t investment advice.
Strategy’s numbers underline the split over its outlook. Reuters noted the company’s stash: 818,334 bitcoins as of May 3. Still, a first-quarter net loss of $12.54 billion landed after bitcoin’s drop cut into holdings. Bitcoin has shed 7% in 2026, even after a bit of a bounce, Reuters added.
For the moment, ARK’s call is still under review by the market rather than fully embraced. Bulls would need to see Bitcoin hold above the low-$80,000s and ETF inflows to keep up before the outlook gets firmer. If there’s another pullback, those $730,000 and $1.5 million price targets likely head back to their usual spot: distant, speculative markers, well out of reach.
