Sydney, Feb 24, 2026, 16:55 AEDT — Market closed
Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX:CBA) closed almost flat on Tuesday at A$178.50, slipping just 0.02% from its previous finish. During the session, shares bounced between A$177.13 and A$179.79. 1
CBA stands as a key player on the Australian market, often serving as the go-to vehicle for investors looking to position around domestic rates—no need to touch bond futures. With inflation figures coming up, traders are left debating whether the central bank’s latest move signals a broader policy shift or just a blip.
Reserve Bank of Australia’s Michael Plumb isn’t ready to swap out the quarterly trimmed-mean inflation gauge for the newer monthly read just yet. Plumb, who heads economic analysis, said the RBA has been looking at underlying inflation numbers from monthly data, but he made clear that the quarterly measure—which cuts out volatile price swings—remains central to how the bank tracks inflation. This month, the RBA raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%. 2
The cash rate target stands at 3.85%, with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next policy decision coming up March 17, according to its website. Governor Michele Bullock’s public remarks are set for Wednesday night—just as traders absorb new inflation data and adjust odds for the March meeting. 3
Bank bulls are running into uncomfortable valuation territory. Macquarie and Morgan Stanley analysts have pointed out that the big lenders are now sitting at average price-to-earnings multiples around 21, with CBA trading closer to 27 times projected FY26 earnings, according to Market Index. Morgan Stanley has CBA and Westpac both rated underweight on this basis, favoring NAB instead. Westpac, for its part, told Market Index that banks are operating in “a more stable environment for margins,” but noted that mortgage and deposit competition continues to squeeze. 4
Company filings published Tuesday revealed CBA took a substantial stake in mortgage broker AFG, while it dropped below substantial holder status in Karoon Energy. The bank also filed an Appendix 3Y disclosing a shift in director Julie Galbo’s interests. 5
The week itself might tell a different story, even if today’s finish stayed subdued. Should inflation data surprise to the upside, bets on “higher for longer” rates could pick up—and it’s typically high-multiple bank stocks that catch the brunt of that shift.
The next key data point lands Wednesday: the Australian Bureau of Statistics will publish January 2026 CPI figures at 11:30 a.m. AEDT. That release is the one that could shake up bank stock pricing and help clarify the RBA’s thinking ahead of March. 6
