ANZ shares lag bank rally as APRA risk-weight plan gives investors a 2027 reason to wait

ANZ Holds Up as ASX Drops; Bigger Test Ahead

July 8, 2026

Sydney, July 9, 2026, 06:03 AEST

  • ANZ ended Wednesday up 1.21% at A$35.87. The S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.21%.
  • The stock moved up with other big banks, while oil-linked geopolitical jitters dragged on the wider market.
  • All eyes are on ANZ’s third-quarter trading update, slated for Aug. 13.

ANZ Group Holdings Limited finished up 1.21% at A$35.87 Wednesday, running counter to weaker action in the wider Australian market. Investors held on to the major banks as new Middle East tension kept oil and interest rate risks in focus. Shares traded in a range from A$34.92 to A$35.95, according to Google Finance.

The move stood out since the S&P/ASX 200 dropped 18.80 points, or 0.21%, settling at 8,785.10. ANZ’s rise seemed to be part of a broader rally among banks, lending some support as the market took a hit from oil and geopolitical news.

ASX cash equities had not started trading at the update. Regular sessions kick off at 09:59:45 in Sydney, after pre-open and an opening auction. That left Wednesday’s close as the last available price for ANZ investors.

Banks traded higher. Westpac Banking Corp was up 0.33%, Commonwealth Bank of Australia rose 0.89%, and National Australia Bank added 0.94%, Google Finance data showed. The sector held up as investors stayed with lenders even while commodity stocks took more of the pain.

S&P 500 dropped Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump declared the Iran deal “over,” Reuters said. Oil prices surged 5%. “Duration is the key here. How long does this go on?” said Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management. MarketScreener

For Australian banks, this isn’t only a headline issue. Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter said consumers and businesses took a hit from the recent oil shock, but the economy hasn’t slowed much yet. She added that if inflation stays high from a supply shock, “some tightening might be called for.” Reuters

The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rate at 4.35% in June, holding after three hikes earlier this year. The RBA said inflation was still running too high and signaled it wants to see how past increases and oil issues feed through. Higher rates can boost bank lending margins, but they also tend to slow credit growth and can raise stress for borrowers.

ANZ’s investment story still depends on the turnaround led by Chief Executive Nuno Matos. In May, ANZ posted a first-half statutory profit of A$3.65 billion and a cash profit of A$3.78 billion. Cash profit strips out some non-core items to represent core operations.

Matos told investors the transformation is moving fast. ANZ still expects to move Suncorp Bank customers to ANZ by June 2027. By the end of March, the bank had finished 34% of the program. ANZ aims for 57% completion by the end of the financial year.

ANZ’s next scheduled check is coming up soon. The bank has set Aug. 13 for its 2026 Q3 trading update and for the APS 330 report, which details capital and risk exposures.

Dividend support is back in the price too. ANZ paid an interim dividend of 83 Australian cents per share, 75% franked, on July 1. Franking credits are Australian tax credits linked to dividends and can boost the value for some local holders.

The bullish case only goes so far. If oil prices keep climbing and the RBA looks at more tightening, banks could see less support as lending slows and arrears — those risky or overdue loans — tick up. ANZ has already recorded a A$126 million collective provision charge in the first half, with A$175 million tied to potential Middle East conflict risks. That was partly offset by better underlying credit quality.

At the open on Thursday, traders are watching if ANZ and its peers still act as a haven, seen as less tied to commodity moves, or if the pressure from Wall Street pulls everything down. ANZ is still below its 52-week high of A$41.00, and above the 52-week low at A$29.64.

Konrad Wysocki

Konrad Wysocki is a senior markets reporter at Bez-kabli.pl, specializing in technology stocks, artificial intelligence and global financial markets. A graduate of the University of Rzeszów, he previously worked in investment research and market analysis. His coverage helps readers understand the key trends, companies and innovations influencing investors worldwide.

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