New York, March 3, 2026, 12:34 PM (EST) — Regular session
- Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 1.7% in late morning trading, with the latest turmoil in the Middle East fueling another round of risk-off sentiment.
- Oil jumped roughly 8%, stoking fresh inflation worries and prompting traders to scale back their bets on Fed rate cuts.
- Travel stocks slipped, materials followed suit. Target advanced. MongoDB dropped, along with alternative-asset managers.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled Tuesday, dropping 831.86 points, or 1.70%, to 48,072.92 by 11:42 a.m. ET, after oil prices surged on fresh tensions in Iran. That spike rattled risk sentiment and stirred fresh concerns about stubborn inflation. 1
Energy costs and trade routes are feeling the squeeze. Iran’s latest threat to close the Strait of Hormuz—and its warning to strike any vessel attempting passage—has thrown a crucial oil shipping channel into uncertainty. 2
Oil prices snapped higher. Brent jumped roughly 8%, landing at $83.81 a barrel. U.S. crude followed, climbing to $77.23—numbers not seen since mid-2024. Traders braced for disruption and possible shipping snarls in the Gulf. 3
This is front and center for the Fed. Futures markets have dialed back expectations for 2026 rate cuts, traders now hesitant to bet on an early return to easing. The jump in fuel costs is a big reason, with worries those higher prices could seep into other parts of the economy. Just a 10% climb in oil—Goldman Sachs analysts say—could nudge core inflation up by a few basis points, and deal a bigger blow to headline CPI. A basis point equals one-hundredth of a percentage point. 4
Strategists weren’t mincing words about oil’s jump. “Oil’s rallied because of the escalation… This has pushed yields higher and stocks lower,” said John Velis, who covers macro strategy for the Americas at BNY. Over at Harris Financial Group, managing partner Jamie Cox said investors are “acting rationally” as energy prices climb and the prospect of rate cuts gets pushed further out. 5
Stocks gave up ground Tuesday, adding to a bumpy beginning to the week. Monday saw the Dow slip 0.15% to 48,904.78. The S&P 500 barely budged, while the Nasdaq managed a slight uptick as some investors bought the dip following early declines sparked by the air strikes on Iran. 6
Earlier, before headlines shifted focus to geopolitics, some economic signals had flashed a bit stronger. The Institute for Supply Management reported February’s manufacturing PMI at 52.4—solidly above the 50 threshold, signaling growth in the sector. 7
Fresh worries over credit and liquidity got a push from corporate headlines. Blackstone reported that redemptions ticked up at its $82 billion BCRED private credit fund, leading to net outflows for the quarter. The stock dropped, as investors weighed whether the pullback could ripple out to other parts of the industry. 8
Software names struggled again. MongoDB tumbled roughly 27% as the company’s forecast for first-quarter profit came in light, with management pointing to a slowdown in Atlas cloud growth. 9
Target stood out in the Dow, bucking the trend as consumer and travel stocks lost ground. New CEO Michael Fiddelke unveiled investment strategies and a profit forecast that topped Wall Street estimates, pushing shares higher. 10
Bulls have a clear headache here: oil remains elevated. Should crude climb up to $100 and linger, bets on easier policy get challenged, and equities—particularly those tied tightly to rates and the broader economy—could see a fast reset.
Eyes now turn to energy markets and any fresh signals out of Washington on policy. Friday brings the highly anticipated U.S. February jobs data, set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET on March 6. 11
