New York, Feb 23, 2026, 15:01 (EST) — Regular session
U.S. gasoline futures edged higher on Monday, with benchmark RBOB gasoline trading around $2.2495 a gallon, up about 0.3% from the prior close, according to Investing.com data. The contract has traded between $2.2187 and $2.2650 so far in the session. (Investing)
That matters because the retail side is sitting in a narrow band too, and the market is heading into a stretch when prices can get jumpy. AAA pegged the national average for regular gasoline at $2.938 a gallon on Monday, roughly flat versus recent days. (AAA Fuel Prices)
Gasoline is still taking its cues from crude, which has hovered near six-month highs even as it eased on Monday. Brent was down 37 cents at $71.39 a barrel and U.S. WTI slid 27 cents to $66.21 by 12:44 p.m. ET; Phil Flynn at Price Futures Group said “the risk of an attack on Iran is still high,” while PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga pointed to tariff headlines as the market’s other live wire. (Reuters)
The last government inventory snapshot also left gasoline traders watching supply, not just geopolitics. In its latest weekly report for the week ended Feb. 13, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said total motor gasoline inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels and were still about 3% above the five-year average for this time of year. (Energy Information Administration)
Big banks are also trying to pin down how much of the recent strength is “risk premium” and how much is fundamentals. Goldman Sachs raised its fourth-quarter 2026 oil forecasts, lifting Brent to $60 and WTI to $56, while keeping a surplus call for 2026 in place, Reuters reported. (Reuters)
But the downside case for gasoline is easy to sketch. Iran has indicated it is prepared to make nuclear concessions in return for sanctions relief, and any clear path toward a deal could cool the Middle East risk bid that has been supporting oil and refined products. (Reuters)
For the consumer-facing price track, traders will get a fresh official read on Tuesday. EIA’s weekly series put regular gasoline at $2.924 a gallon for the week ended Feb. 16, and its next release is scheduled for Feb. 24. (U.S. Energy Information Administration)
The next inventory catalyst is Wednesday’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, due Feb. 25, with EIA’s standard release time at 10:30 a.m. Eastern. The gasoline stock change and refinery runs typically do the most work on RBOB when the market is already leaning one way. (U.S. Energy Information Administration)
After that, it’s Thursday’s Geneva talks. Oman’s foreign minister confirmed the U.S.-Iran meeting and said it is set “with a positive push to go the extra mile towards finalising the deal,” a line traders will test against the first real headlines out of Feb. 26. (Reuters)
