New York, Feb 23, 2026, 15:01 (EST) — Regular session
Gasoline futures in the U.S. ticked up Monday, with RBOB posting a roughly 0.3% gain to $2.2495 a gallon, Investing.com data showed. Prices have moved between $2.2187 and $2.2650 during the session. 1
This is notable, with retail prices also stuck in a tight range as the market enters a period known for price swings. On Monday, AAA put the national average for regular gas at $2.938 a gallon—basically unchanged from previous days. 2
Gasoline prices remain tethered to crude, which, after flirting with six-month highs, pulled back a bit on Monday. Brent slipped 37 cents to $71.39 a barrel, while U.S. WTI dropped 27 cents to $66.21 as of 12:44 p.m. ET. “The risk of an attack on Iran is still high,” said Phil Flynn of Price Futures Group. Tamas Varga at PVM Oil Associates flagged tariff news as another market flashpoint. 3
Gasoline traders had more than geopolitics on their radar after the latest government inventory data. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly report, covering the week ended Feb. 13, showed a 3.2 million-barrel drop in total motor gasoline inventories. Even so, stocks remained roughly 3% above the five-year seasonal average. 4
Big banks are still sorting out what portion of the latest push comes from “risk premium” versus actual fundamentals. Goldman Sachs bumped up its Brent forecast for the fourth quarter of 2026 to $60 and sees WTI at $56, according to Reuters. Still, the bank hasn’t budged from its call for a surplus that year. 5
The bearish argument for gasoline isn’t hard to find. Iran says it’s willing to offer nuclear concessions for sanctions relief—a move that would shift the calculus. If there’s any sign of progress toward a deal, the Middle East risk premium propping up oil and refined product prices could start to unwind. 6
Traders looking for the latest on consumer gas prices will see new numbers Tuesday. The EIA last pegged regular gasoline at $2.924 per gallon for the week ending Feb. 16; its next update lands Feb. 24. 7
Wednesday brings the next inventory update: the Weekly Petroleum Status Report lands Feb. 25 at 10:30 a.m. Eastern, right on schedule from the EIA. For RBOB, it’s usually gasoline stock swings and refinery throughput that move the needle if traders are already set in a direction. 8
Next up: Geneva on Thursday. Oman’s foreign minister has backed up the U.S.-Iran meeting, calling it “a positive push to go the extra mile towards finalising the deal.” Traders will be weighing that optimism against whatever headlines drop out of Feb. 26. 9
