LONDON, June 29, 2026, 09:10 BST
- Glencore gained around 0.8% in early trading Monday. Its shares are still lagging major mining rivals over the past five days.
- Copper closed above $13,000 a tonne again at Friday’s LME settlement, with exchange inventories dropping over the week.
- The gap gives investors a simpler test: focus on whether firms deliver production and hold trading margins, beyond just tracking copper prices.
Glencore plc (LON:GLEN) ticked higher early in London on Monday, adding 0.79% to 518.75 pence in a Cboe Europe print at 09:10:56 BST. The move gave little relief to a shaky short-term trend for the big FTSE 100 commodities group. The FTSE 100 (INDEXFTSE:UKX) slipped 0.08% in delayed trading.
What’s strange is Glencore shares dropped even though copper supply is still tight. LME cash copper finished at $13,287 a tonne on June 26, up 0.7% from a day ago. LME copper inventories slid to 336,475 tonnes from 349,225 tonnes on June 22, down 12,750 tonnes.
This is important since Glencore isn’t acting like a plain copper play right now. The shares still trade as if investors need to see more before betting the first-quarter copper move lasts into the back half, and that higher diesel and sulphuric acid costs don’t wipe out the gains.
| Company | Five-day move | One-year move | Market cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Glencore plc (LON:GLEN) | down 7.78% | up 81.73% | $79.69 bln |
| BHP Group Ltd (LON:BHP) | off 0.86% | up 62.78% | $207 bln |
| Rio Tinto plc (LON:RIO) | down 4.71% | up 68.65% | $163 bln |
| Anglo American plc (LON:AAL) | off 5.10% | up 72.37% | $52.65 bln |
MarketScreener’s peer screen put Glencore’s five-day drop at 6.9 percentage points deeper than BHP, 3.1 points more than Rio Tinto, and 2.7 points over Anglo American. The tool still showed Glencore up 26.77% for the year, so the pain looks short-term, not a wipeout for the 2026 trade.
Glencore’s most recent update lays out reasons for bulls to stay interested. In the first quarter, it said own-sourced copper production climbed 19% to 199,600 tonnes. The jump came from better copper grades in Africa, plus higher throughput and grade at Antamina. Glencore left its 2026 copper forecast unchanged at 810,000 to 870,000 tonnes, with more than half, or 52%, of that still expected in the second half.
| Glencore Q1 metric | Q1 2026 | Change vs Q1 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Copper from own mines | 199.6 kt | up 19% |
| Cobalt from own mines | 5.8 kt | down 39% |
| Steelmaking coal | 6.5 mt | down 22% |
| Energy coal | 22.9 mt | down 2% |
Glencore CEO Gary Nagle said in the April production update that first-quarter output was mostly as expected. He said higher commodity prices should more than cover new cost pressures, which would lead to “margin expansion.” Nagle added that running first-quarter marketing results out over the year would have annual EBIT “comfortably exceeding the top end” of Glencore’s $2.3 billion to $3.5 billion long-term marketing range. Glencore
Copper’s price is still a mixed story. Reuters Open Interest said June 26 that treatment and refining charges at copper smelters had collapsed, with spot processing fees below zero as China’s smelters outstrip available mine supply. That’s tough for players with smelting exposure—even Glencore, which operates across mining, trading, and metallurgy. The high copper price helps, but smelter pain muddies the picture.
Coal is also giving some support to the shares. Asia’s seaborne thermal coal imports hit 77.37 million tonnes in June, the highest since December. Buying from China, Japan and South Korea pushed the total up 22.3% on the year, Reuters Open Interest reported last week. Glencore left its 2026 energy coal guidance unchanged at 95 million to 100 million tonnes in its first-quarter update.
The technicals don’t look as good. A tear sheet from the London Stock Exchange/FTSE Russell on June 26 listed Glencore at 515 pence—down 9.3% from its 50-day moving average of 568 pence, still 11.0% over the 200-day average of 464 pence. Its relative strength index stood at 31.34.
Nagle is still making the case for copper. At Glencore’s capital markets day, he said Glencore could get to more than 1 million tonnes of base copper a year by the end of 2028, aiming for about 1.6 million tonnes in 2035. “Copper has a critical role to play,” he said. Glencore
Glencore shares are still trading with delivery risk priced in. The stock opened Monday at 518.75 pence, down about 16% from the 52-week high of 615 pence listed on the LSE/FTSE Russell tear sheet. That’s still roughly 85% above its 52-week low at 280 pence.
