NEW YORK, March 19, 2026, 09:15 EDT.
Gold and silver fell to their lowest levels in more than a month on Thursday, as a firmer U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields after the Federal Reserve’s rate decision overwhelmed the metals’ usual safe-haven appeal during the Middle East war. Spot gold was down 2.7% at $4,687.19 an ounce by 1125 GMT after touching $4,665.69, its weakest since Feb. 6, while spot silver lost 6.3% to $70.65 after hitting $69.95, also its lowest since Feb. 6. 1
The move matters because it shows investors are treating the energy shock as an inflation problem first and a haven trade second. Gold is non-yielding, meaning it pays no interest, so higher bond yields and a stronger dollar bite fast; by late Wednesday, markets were pricing only about 14 basis points of Fed easing by December, barely half of one standard quarter-point cut, down from expectations for at least two cuts in late February. 2
The Fed held its target range at 3.50%-3.75% on Wednesday, saying inflation remained “somewhat elevated” and that the implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy were uncertain. Its March projections lifted median 2026 PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred price gauge, to 2.7% from 2.4% in December, and core PCE inflation to 2.7% from 2.5%. 3
Powell drove the point home. “Higher energy prices will push up overall inflation,” he said after the meeting, while warning it was too soon to know how large or how lasting the hit to growth might be. Morgan Stanley on Thursday moved its call for the next Fed cut to September from June, joining Goldman Sachs and Barclays in pushing their forecasts back. 4
The market reaction was blunt. After the Fed statement, the S&P 500 fell 1.4%, the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.26%, the two-year yield climbed to 3.77%, and the dollar index gained 0.6% to 100.19. Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital, said Powell had shifted to a neutral stance, feeding a growing view that the Fed may not cut at all this year. 5
That helps explain why the Iran war has lifted oil far more than bullion. Brent crude jumped above $119 a barrel before paring gains after Iran struck energy facilities across the Gulf in retaliation for Israel’s attack on Iran’s South Pars gas field, a major escalation that jolted energy markets. 6
Pressure spread beyond bullion. U.S.-listed precious-metals miners slid in premarket trade, with Gold Fields down 9.4% and Endeavour Silver off 6.1%, as investors marked down the sector along with gold and silver. 7
Across major central banks, the message was much the same. The Fed, Bank of Canada and Bank of Japan all held rates steady but signaled they were alert to a fresh inflation wave from higher fuel costs, and BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said a near-term hike could not be ruled out if the growth hit proved temporary. 8
Britain added to that tone on Thursday. The Bank of England voted 9-0 to keep Bank Rate at 3.75% and said inflation could rise as high as 3.5% over the next two quarters, with some policymakers openly raising the possibility that rates may need to go up again if the energy shock sticks. 9
Still, the selloff does not settle the bigger argument over gold. Tai Wong, an independent metals trader, said the break below $5,000 was “technically troubling” but did not change the longer-term bullish case; a deeper slowdown, or a wider war that sends investors back into havens faster than it lifts rate expectations, could turn the market again. 10
