NEW YORK, March 3, 2026, 11:43 (ET) — Regular session
- Goldman Sachs shares down about 1.8% in late-morning trade as U.S. financials slide
- Oil-driven inflation fears are pushing traders to dial back near-term Fed cut bets
- Goldman’s own trading desk warned clients the path for U.S. stocks could get “painful” near term
Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N) shares fell $15.78, or 1.8%, to $845.92 by 11:27 a.m. ET on Tuesday, after trading between $824.87 and $850.01 as investors dumped banks with the broader market. JPMorgan Chase & Co was down 0.4%, Morgan Stanley fell 2.3% and Bank of America slipped 0.8%, while the S&P 500 ETF SPY and the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund XLF were down about 1.5% and 1.1%, respectively.
For Goldman, the tape is rarely just the tape. The stock often moves like a proxy for risk appetite because its revenue leans on client trading, underwriting and advisory work when markets are calm enough for deals to clear.
What’s pressing now is the mix of geopolitics and inflation math. If oil stays high, it can feed through quickly to prices and keep the Federal Reserve cautious, a setup that tends to hit financials even when credit is fine.
Wall Street’s main indexes were down more than 2% earlier in the session, with the S&P 500 hitting its lowest in over two months, after Iran threatened vessels attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global crude shipments. “The main concern is that (oil prices) goes to over $100 a barrel and stays there,” said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth. 1
In rates, traders have been walking back cut expectations as energy prices climb. CME FedWatch showed a 30.7% chance of at least a quarter-point cut in June, down from last week; by December, futures implied about 42 basis points of easing (a basis point is 0.01 percentage point). Goldman analysts estimated in a Monday note that a sustained 10% rise in oil prices would add 4 basis points to core CPI and 28 basis points to headline CPI. 2
Goldman’s own traders are not calling for a quick reset. “The only way up is down from here,” the bank’s trading desk team including Gail Hafif and Brian Garrett wrote in a note, pointing to fragile sentiment after the S&P 500’s latest push above 7,000 fizzled. 3
Dealmakers are also watching whether volatility turns into delay. SoftBank-backed PayPay is targeting up to a $13.4 billion valuation in a U.S. IPO, and Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Mizuho and Morgan Stanley are joint book-running managers; the roadshow was pushed back after markets were jolted by the widening Middle East conflict. IPOX CEO Josef Schuster said demand is strongest for domestic “specialty firms” seen as more insulated, while Renaissance Capital strategist Matt Kennedy said many issuers have been waiting “a long time” for an ideal market. 4
The broader backdrop is still risk-off. A surge in energy prices tied to the conflict has driven a global selloff and a pullback in rate-cut expectations, with investors also watching knock-on effects in shipping and fuel supply. 5
But the setup cuts both ways for Goldman. Volatility can lift client activity in trading desks, and any easing in the conflict could snap bank stocks higher. The downside is messier: a prolonged oil shock that keeps inflation sticky, freezes IPO windows and slows M&A at the same time.
Next up, investors are looking to Friday’s February employment report at 8:30 a.m. ET and the Fed’s March 17-18 policy meeting for clues on how long policymakers stay on hold if energy prices keep running. 6
