NEW YORK, March 3, 2026, 11:43 (ET) — Regular session
- Goldman Sachs dropped roughly 1.8% in late-morning trading, with U.S. financials broadly under pressure.
- Rising oil prices have traders pulling back on expectations for an imminent Fed rate cut as inflation worries take center stage.
- Goldman’s trading desk cautioned clients the near-term outlook for U.S. stocks might turn “painful.”
Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N) shares slid $15.78, or 1.8%, to $845.92 by 11:27 a.m. ET on Tuesday, with trading bouncing between $824.87 and $850.01 as investors unloaded bank stocks alongside the wider market. JPMorgan Chase & Co dipped 0.4%, Morgan Stanley dropped 2.3%, and Bank of America lost 0.8%. The S&P 500 ETF SPY and the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund XLF slipped roughly 1.5% and 1.1%.
Goldman’s share price tends to do more than simply track the market. It frequently acts as a barometer for risk sentiment, since the bank relies heavily on client trading, underwriting, and advising—activities that pick up when the market environment allows dealmaking to go through.
Geopolitics and inflation math are front and center. Oil holding at elevated levels? That’s a direct line to higher prices, pushing the Fed to stay wary. Financials usually take the punch—even if credit conditions are still solid.
Wall Street’s major indexes dropped more than 2% earlier, with the S&P 500 sliding to its lowest point in more than two months. That selloff followed Iran’s threat against vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz—a crucial choke point for global oil flows. “The main concern is that (oil prices) goes to over $100 a barrel and stays there,” said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth. 1
Rising energy prices have traders dialing back their rate cut bets. According to CME FedWatch, the chance of at least a 25-basis-point cut in June now sits at 30.7%, a drop from last week. By December, futures are pricing in only about 42 basis points of total easing. Goldman analysts, in a note Monday, said that if oil prices jump 10% and stay there, core CPI would go up by 4 basis points, while headline CPI would see a 28-point bump. 2
Goldman traders aren’t expecting a turnaround anytime soon. “The only way up is down from here,” wrote Gail Hafif and Brian Garrett from the bank’s trading desk, highlighting shaky sentiment after the S&P 500 briefly topped 7,000 before losing steam. 3
Dealmakers are keeping an eye on volatility and whether it leads to delays. SoftBank-backed PayPay is chasing a U.S. IPO that could give it a valuation as high as $13.4 billion, with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Mizuho, and Morgan Stanley all in as joint bookrunners. The roadshow didn’t go ahead as scheduled, after markets were rattled by the escalating Middle East conflict. IPOX CEO Josef Schuster notes that demand is concentrated around domestic “specialty firms” considered more shielded, while Renaissance Capital’s Matt Kennedy adds that many issuers have been waiting “a long time” for the right window. 4
Risk aversion remains the dominant theme. Conflict-driven energy price spikes have triggered a worldwide sell-off and cooled hopes for rate cuts. Investors are eyeing potential fallout in shipping and fuel supply as well. 5
For Goldman, though, it’s a double-edged sword. On one hand, more volatility tends to boost client flows across trading desks, and if tensions cool, bank stocks could rebound fast. The risk? If an oil shock drags on, inflation may stay stubborn, IPOs could stall, and M&A slows down—all at once.
All eyes shift now to Friday’s February jobs report, out at 8:30 a.m. ET, with the Fed’s March 17-18 policy meeting on deck as well. Markets want signals on just how long policymakers might stay put if energy prices keep climbing. 6
