LONDON, May 15, 2026, 14:05 BST
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA wrapped up its €500 million share buyback, snapping up 116,823,728 ordinary shares with the last lot acquired on May 14, according to a filing. That haul represents roughly 2.53% of issued capital. For now, the shares sit in treasury—owned by the company—pending a planned cancellation that requires shareholder sign-off.
That’s the thing about timing. A buyback—when a company puts up cash to scoop up its own shares—typically bumps up earnings per share by shrinking the share count. Yet IAG is going ahead with this as investors keep questioning the British Airways parent on rising fuel bills, summer ticket prices, and the fallout from Strait of Hormuz troubles.
IAG was changing hands at 374.50 pence, off 2.58% as of 13:47 BST, according to Investors Chronicle data. Shares remain well under the 52-week high of 464.28 pence set back on Feb. 27, despite logging a year-over-year gain topping 16%.
IAG found support in its first-quarter figures. Revenue climbed 1.9% to €7.18 billion, and operating profit surged 77.3% to €351 million. Liquidity landed at €12.73 billion, with net debt at €4.18 billion. Chief Executive Luis Gallego noted there were “no issues with fuel availability in our main markets,” though he warned that pricier fuel would drag profits below the group’s initial expectations for the year.
But guidance has already shifted. Last week, Reuters reported IAG warned that annual profit, free cash flow—the cash left after running and investing in the business—and capacity would all fall short of previous forecasts. For 2026, IAG estimated it would spend around €9 billion on jet fuel and said 70% of the fuel it expects to use is already hedged with contracts. J.P. Morgan’s Harry Gowers said the “current conflict will prove the resiliency of the group.” Reuters
IAG’s not the only one feeling the strain. On Thursday, Reuters noted that European airlines and airports have been working to calm passenger nerves ahead of the busy summer months. Lufthansa said its fuel supplies are covered at least until early summer, and Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary said the chance of major disruption is fading. To keep the fuel flowing, airlines have been shelling out extra for supplies from the US and Nigeria.
The waterway is still the pivot. On Friday, Iran’s foreign minister declared that Tehran “no trust” in Washington and talks had stalled. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, meanwhile, said Beijing was pushing to see the Strait of Hormuz open again—no restrictions, no tolls. In normal conditions, almost 20% of the world’s oil and LNG moves through the strait, according to Reuters. Reuters
Prediction markets aren’t signaling optimism for a quick resolution. Over at Polymarket, odds on Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by the end of May priced in at just 7%, climbing to 46% by July 31. Kalshi’s contracts showed a 37% chance for normalcy before Aug. 1, and 60% before Oct. 1. Those numbers reflect trading sentiment, not official predictions.
The risk? Obvious. Persistent fuel premiums and more seats from competitors could push IAG to lift fares, landing them in a market where many travelers are still willing to wait or downgrade. That scenario puts real pressure on IAG’s margin defense, especially if they want to maintain those high load factors.
If Hormuz reopens sooner, that changes things. Fuel pressure might lighten up, and suddenly IAG’s strong long-haul and premium-cabin business could mean more than investors give it credit for right now. But at this stage, the buyback simply signals IAG is keeping its cash discipline—while the share price makes clear investors still need to be convinced the fuel shock won’t bite into it.
