Informa buyback math in play as Middle East event risk rises

Informa buyback math in play as Middle East event risk rises

July 4, 2026

LONDON, July 3, 2026, 23:04 BST

  • Informa Plc (LON:INF) last traded at 916.6p, up 0.15%. The UK large-cap index was up 0.25%. The shares have gained 11.7% in the past four weeks.
  • This week’s reported buyback spent around £8.2 million, with an average price of 879.35p, about 4.2% under Friday’s close.
  • Informa said it bought back and cancelled 286.4 million shares since February 2022. As of June 30, the company had 1.262 billion shares in issue.
  • Citi thinks Informa’s half-year update on July 30 could focus more on its events schedule in the Middle East than the headline figures.

Informa Plc (LON:INF) finished the London session at 916.6p, up 1.4p. Shares moved between 909.4p and 920.2p during the day. The gain lagged the UK large-cap index, which added 0.25%. Informa is up 11.7% over the last four weeks.

The figure not getting much attention is the cost of cutting the share count. Informa’s latest weekly buyback filing said it bought 932,607 shares for cancellation between June 22 and June 26. The venue breakdown in the RNS points to a weighted average price near 879.35p, making the outlay around £8.2 million. The last quote on Friday was 4.2% higher than that.

Buyback and price checkFigureInvestor read
July 3 late quote916.6pTrading above the recent buyback average
Latest reported buyback week932,607 sharesTaken out of circulation
Estimated weighted average buyback price879.35pNear 4.2% under Friday’s close
Estimated weekly buyback spend£8.2 mlnAbout 3.3% toward the 2026 minimum target
2026 buyback commitmentAt least £250 mlnIf spent at 916.6p, would retire about 27.3 mln shares

The point here is Informa relies on buybacks to help bolster earnings per share. With the average price from June 22-26, £250 million could get around 28.4 million shares. At 916.6p, that same money would pick up about 27.3 million. That’s a gap of around 1.2 million shares, or 0.09% of the share count as of June 30.

The buyback has shifted the base for earnings. Informa said July 1 it’s bought and cancelled 286.4 million shares since the programme began in February 2022. That’s about 18.5% of its current and cancelled issued share base of 1.262 billion.

Informa’s trading story is still about events and academic markets. On June 18, Informa said underlying revenue climbed 6.4% in the five months through May 31. Taylor & Francis was up 5.5%, and B2B Live Events gained 7.6%. “We have momentum in both our businesses, B2B Live Events and Academic Services,” CEO Stephen A. Carter said. Investegate

Operating markerLatest company or broker figureWhy investors care
Group underlying revenue up in first five months6.4%Tied to 2026 targets
Academic Markets improvement5.5%Less dependent on timing of events
B2B Live Events revenue increase7.6%Key piece for hitting 2026 goals
B2B Live Events outlook for full year7%+Sets expectations for July 30
Citi sees H1 underlying revenue up6.5%Just above Citi’s 6.2% consensus figure
Citi forecast for adjusted EBIT margin26.3%Sits below Citi’s consensus at 27.7%

The key issue is timing in the Middle East. Informa said about 10% of its B2B Live Events are still set for regions affected by conflict. The group has pushed more than 15 brands into 2026, with some new launches now pushed back to 2027. Informa plans another market update on July 30. That’s five weeks out from the first big rescheduled events: LEAP in Riyadh and Middle East Energy in Dubai.

Citi told Proactive on July 2 that the July 30 half-year numbers may matter less than what management says on future events in the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Citi is looking for about 2% reported group growth in H1, 6.5% on an underlying basis, and adjusted EBIT margin at 26.3%. Consensus from Visible Alpha is 27.7%.

Informa said shareholders have more than $4 billion in full-year revenue already traded, booked or visible, with the £250 million buyback still running. The final dividend will be paid on July 10, Davy’s market data page shows.

Konrad Wysocki

Konrad Wysocki is a senior markets reporter at Bez-kabli.pl, specializing in technology stocks, artificial intelligence and global financial markets. A graduate of the University of Rzeszów, he previously worked in investment research and market analysis. His coverage helps readers understand the key trends, companies and innovations influencing investors worldwide.

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