May 30, 2026, 8:13 PM EDT. The Australian federal government's plan to abolish negative gearing on established properties post-May 12, 2026, threatens Commonwealth Bank of Australia's (CBA) loan growth more than initially perceived. As the country's largest bank with the biggest investor mortgage book, CBA faces heightened risk. Analysts from Jarden Bank and UBS warn of up to 25% dip in housing credit growth, spotlighting CBA as most exposed among the big four banks. CBA's economists project a nearly 3% decline in established home prices, revising down dwelling price growth to 3% by December 2026. CBA shares plunged 8.5% following the budget, marking the steepest one-day drop ever but have partially rebounded. Broker opinions diverge on share recovery, with firms like Morgans, Macquarie, and Morgan Stanley maintaining sell ratings due to forecasted earnings cuts. Negative gearing policy alters a key revenue stream but won't diminish CBA's market dominance.
