SYDNEY, June 29, 2026, 04:12 AEST
- Lynas ended Friday at A$18.54, gaining 2.0% for the week. The S&P/ASX 200 (INDEXASX:XJO) fell 0.73%.
- Last week, the stock ranged from A$17.31 to A$19.46, a wide spread for a large-cap materials stock.
- COO Pol Le Roux will become interim CEO on June 30. Malaysia EIA paperwork is still a near-term hurdle.
ASX cash trading had not opened yet in Sydney. Regular trading begins after 09:59:45 Sydney time, so Friday’s close remains the latest price for Lynas Rare Earths Limited ASX:LYC: A$18.54, down 0.86% on the day, but up 1.98% from the previous Friday. The S&P/ASX 200 (INDEXASX:XJO) ended the week down 0.73%.
The trade was not across all “rare earths.” Lynas finished the week higher, while Iluka Resources Limited ASX:ILU dropped 11.8% to A$6.90, despite Canberra’s A$1.65 billion non-recourse loan for its Eneabba refinery. The moves suggest investors favored cash flow and separated products over refinery construction risk. Investing
As of the June 19 and June 26 closes, the split was as follows:
| Instrument/company | Friday close | Week move | What mattered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lynas Rare Earths Limited ASX:LYC | A$18.54 | +2.0% | Non-China separation capacity in operation; Malaysia EIA update |
| Iluka Resources Limited ASX:ILU | A$6.90 | -11.8% | Eneabba loan secured, but execution risk remains priced in |
| S&P/ASX 200 (INDEXASX:XJO) | 8,764.2 | -0.73% | Benchmark slipped for the week |
Lynas shares were volatile. The stock reached A$19.46 on Wednesday and finished at A$19.34. It fell 4.1% in the next two sessions but remains up 49.4% in 2026. The year’s high is A$22.37, according to available pricing.
The Malaysia line poses a risk investors may not want to keep open. On June 23, Lynas told the ASX that Malaysia’s Department of Environment had requested an updated environmental impact assessment for a planned expansion following a technical review. Lynas said it would submit the updated assessment.
This is not a minor issue. Malaysia extended Lynas’ operating licence for 10 years in March, but the permit requires the company to stop generating radioactive waste after five years. Residue produced before then must be neutralised by extracting thorium or another approved method, the science ministry said at the time.
China maintained its non-China premium. On June 24, Beijing launched a hotline for reporting smuggling of restricted critical minerals, including cases of transshipment violations, after previous controls were undermined by smuggling. Less leakage from China could make Lynas supply harder to secure for buyers needing compliant materials.
Amanda Lacaze highlighted the shift in buyers in May. “In both cases, we see different purchasing decisions as consumers try to meet the regulations,” the Lynas CEO said, referring to U.S. and European rules steering buyers away from Chinese suppliers. Reuters
The floor price is the other key issue for the stock. Lynas’ Japan Australia Rare Earths agreement includes an annual supply of 5,000 tonnes of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) through 2038 and sets a US$110 per kg floor price. Lynas will also reserve 75% of its heavy rare-earth oxide output for Japanese buyers. Reuters reported that Lacaze said the deal ensures Japanese industry has a “reliable supply.” Reuters
Following the U.S. agreement with MP Materials NYSE:MP, Lacaze told Reuters last year that prices could rise above US$110. “Can (prices) go above $110? Yes,” she said. Reuters
Valuation is trickier for the stock. Morningstar analyst Jon Mills lifted Lynas’ fair value estimate to A$10 from A$7 after the Japan deal, citing higher rare-earth price forecasts, but said Lynas “appears significantly overvalued.” The shares closed on Friday 85% above that A$10 estimate. Morningstar
This week, attention is on the CEO transition. Chief Operating Officer Pol Le Roux will become interim CEO on June 30, ending Lacaze’s 12-year tenure. In the coming sessions, the stock faces two tests: if the EIA update remains routine and if Le Roux handles the transition without surprises.
