SYDNEY, June 24, 2026, 07:06 (AEST)
Lynas Rare Earths heads into Wednesday’s ASX trading session with Macquarie setting a new A$22 price target. Looking closer at the numbers, the broker’s model lines up with details from Lynas’ Japan supply deal—almost half the miner’s forecast 2029 production is already booked with a price floor that’s nearly identical to Macquarie’s base case.
Lynas is set to produce 10,300 tonnes of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) in fiscal 2029, with Macquarie putting the price near US$117 per kg. NdPr goes into high-strength permanent magnets. Japan Australia Rare Earths has signed up for 5,000 tonnes a year under a long-term contract with a price floor of US$110, or 48.5% of Macquarie’s forecast output. That locked-in price is about 6% below the bank’s model. CEO Amanda Lacaze said Japanese industry will get a “reliable supply” from the agreement. Reuters
Lynas shifts pressure for investors. The contracted tonnes have a solid price floor but still give some upside if market prices go up. This puts more focus on whether Lynas can boost output and finish its processing expansion.
Lynas closed at A$18.59 on Tuesday, off 0.16%. The stock moved between A$17.96 and A$19.35, an intraday swing of A$1.39. That was enough for Lynas to come out ahead of the Australian materials sector, which dropped 1.38%. The S&P/ASX 200 eased 0.33% to 8,787.
The ASX was still in pre-open when this was published. Continuous trading is set to start at 09:59:45 Sydney time.
Macquarie bumped Lynas up to “Outperform” from “Neutral” and lifted its target price by 10%. That suggests about 18% upside from Tuesday’s closing level. Forecasts for production and earnings were left untouched. The broker raised the valuation multiple it uses for Lynas, moving from 12 to 15 times EV/EBITDA — enterprise value over earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, which compares total value to operating profit.
The move bumps Macquarie’s valuation multiple for Lynas up by 25%. A A$2 lift in the price target means about A$2 billion more in implied equity value for Lynas, with the broker using roughly 1.01 billion shares on issue.
China put new export controls on U.S. competitors including MP Materials and USA Rare Earth. George Chen, Greater China partner at The Asia Group, said the move could be “quite symbolic” since a lot of the firms hit don’t have much business in China now. Reuters
Customer pressure is showing up in the data. Chinese customs figures show zero shipments of terbium or dysprosium oxide to Japan since November. In May, Chinese rare-earth magnet exports dropped 35% from April. These heavy rare earths are used in magnets for vehicles, industrial equipment, and defense, where they need to withstand high temperatures.
Lynas flagged execution risk Tuesday after saying Malaysia’s Department of Environment had asked for a fresh environmental impact assessment. The request follows a technical review of Lynas’s planned expansion. The company said it would file the new study but didn’t say when.
Competitors keep spending big to lock in downstream assets. Energy Fuels said Tuesday it will buy German magnet maker Vacuumschmelze for $1.9 billion, picking up an established business with over 1,000 customers. “This is not an easy business to get into,” Energy Fuels CEO Ross Bhappu told Reuters. He said investors are now paying up for proven processing and customer ties, not just undeveloped resources. Reuters
Lynas still faces some risks. If the Malaysian approval drags out, or if Kalgoorlie sees power problems or sulphuric-acid prices go up, the investment story could unravel. A drop in NdPr prices would also hit the case for the stock’s current multiple. Failing to meet Macquarie’s 10,300-tonne output target or the US$117 price assumption would make that 15-times valuation tough to justify.
Lynas reported March-quarter revenue at A$265 million, up from A$123 million a year ago, topping any quarter since late fiscal 2022. The big question is if the jump leads to steady production growth as its Malaysia project moves forward.
