Sydney, March 17, 2026, 10:25 AEDT
National Australia Bank ended Monday at A$47.06, leaving the stock just below the record A$47.96 hit after last month’s first-quarter update, as investors headed into Tuesday’s Reserve Bank of Australia decision. 1
The timing matters because money markets are pricing roughly a 72% chance of a quarter-point RBA move this week after the Middle East conflict pushed oil above $100 a barrel and revived inflation fears. For bank stocks, the next turn in rates has become the main near-term driver. 2
For NAB, Australia’s top business lender, the immediate question is its net interest margin, or NIM — the spread between what a bank earns on loans and what it pays to fund them. NAB said NIM rose to 1.80% in the first quarter, and all four major banks passed February’s RBA rise through to variable home loans later that month. 3
That first-quarter update still frames the stock. NAB’s underlying first-quarter profit rose 16% to A$2.02 billion, with business banking volumes up 7% and housing loan volumes up 5%; Chief Executive Andrew Irvine said the bank had “started 2026 strongly.” 3
NAB is not alone. Commonwealth Bank, Westpac and ANZ are also among the big lenders expecting a March rate increase, and Belinda Allen, head of Australian economics at CBA, said “the balance of probabilities has shifted” toward hikes in March and May, while Deutsche Bank chief economist Phil O’Donaghoe said his earlier reading had been “the wrong one” after hawkish RBA commentary. 4
Fresh data from the bank on Tuesday added a more mixed read on the economy. NAB’s consumer spend tracker showed household spending rose 0.4% in February, suggesting a solid first quarter, but the bank said the figures likely do not yet capture the February rate rise or the fallout from the conflict in Iran. 5
Still, the trade is not one-way. RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser has said there are arguments on both sides of a March move because a longer conflict could damage growth, while Citi analysts called NAB’s common equity tier 1 ratio — a key capital buffer against losses — the “clear negative” in an otherwise strong quarter. 6
Oil eased on Monday, with Brent settling at $100.21 a barrel, but prices are still more than 40% higher this month. That leaves NAB supported by higher-rate expectations, yet exposed if policymakers step back or if fuel costs start to hit activity harder. 2
