London, May 13, 2026, 12:05 BST
- National Grid hovered near 1,275–1,276p in London, barely off its previous close at 1,277p after swinging between 1,267.5p and 1,298.5p earlier in the session.
- The share’s sluggishness isn’t about any recent company bombshell. Instead, traders are grappling with pre-earnings positioning, stubbornly high gilt yields, and uncertainty around financing a major grid expansion.
- Bulls highlight the £70 billion investment plan and the 8%–10% earnings growth target. Bears, though, flag rate pressure, U.S. regulatory drag, storm costs, and a hefty debt load.
National Grid plc hovered just below the flatline by midday, quoted at 1,275p/1,276p after kicking off at 1,280.5p. It reads as a quiet session, though the actual day’s spread—1,267.5p to 1,298.5p—suggests there’s still some price testing ahead of the full-year numbers. Around 2.5 million shares had changed hands, trailing the three-month average on Investing.com, while the group’s market cap was holding near £63.6 billion.
Here’s the problem: National Grid’s now heavily focused on capital spending, right as borrowing costs are climbing. The FTSE 100 managed some gains this day, but UK 10-year gilts were stuck near 5.08%. Brent crude pushed past $107 a barrel—no relief for inflation or funding costs. That’s a headache for utilities. Rising bond yields squeeze in two ways: dividend payouts lose their edge, and long-term projects just get pricier to fund.
The company’s event is right around the corner. National Grid will post its full-year 2025/26 numbers on May 14, and both CEO Zoë Yujnovich and CFO Andy Agg are set for a webcast and Q&A with investors. So, the action today looks like traders taking positions ahead of that. What matters next isn’t only the figures—the market’s keyed in on the messaging.
The last formal pre-close update from National Grid set expectations for shareholders. For the year ended March 31, the company reported results in line with forecasts, though it highlighted a roughly 1p drag on underlying EPS due to customer refund charges related to a FERC decision affecting New England Transmission, along with elevated U.S. storm expenses. Some of that impact was cushioned by reduced finance costs. Underlying EPS reflects earnings per share after excluding items management considers outside the core business.
The 1p difference isn’t trivial—investors have a tight narrative on earnings already priced in. As of May 7, company-collected analyst consensus figures show FY 2025/26 underlying earnings per share at 77.8p, dividend at 48.45p, underlying EBIT of £5.75 billion, and net income at £3.84 billion. On results day, the focus is whether guidance still holds up after the U.S. refund and all the storm-cost chatter.
Management has pushed to reframe the conversation around the company’s scale rather than short-term fluctuations. Back in March, National Grid rolled out a plan to funnel at least £70 billion into the business through FY31, aiming for annual asset growth close to 10%, and targeting 8%–10% compound annual growth in underlying EPS. Yujnovich told investors her focus was to “sharpen performance, drive momentum.” The company added that RIIO-T3 — the UK electricity transmission regulatory period — improves its visibility on both allowed investment levels and returns. StockAnalysis
The peer group’s support only goes so far. SSE, for its part, has doubled down on grid investment—Reuters noted last month that the company lifted its annual earnings outlook and now has a £33 billion five-year plan focused on renewables and network upgrades. United Utilities and Severn Trent fall under the same defensive, regulated-income category, though water firms face their own set of political and regulatory headaches. The big market question hanging over all of them: will regulators allow these firms to make enough returns on the capex being demanded?
The argument for the stock is straightforward enough: National Grid controls infrastructure crucial to both the UK and the U.S. Northeast, and the latest regulatory shift gives investors a clearer earnings outlook tied to capital outlays. Bernstein’s Deepa Venkateswaran sticks to her Buy call with a 1,450p price target; same with JPMorgan’s Pavan Mahbubani, who also holds at Buy and 1,450p. On the other side, UBS isn’t budging—still at Sell, still targeting 1,160p, casting doubt on whether the new growth strategy merits a richer valuation.
Funding remains tricky. On the March investor call, Agg told investors the group might be looking at raising or refinancing anywhere from “high single digits up to towards GBP 10 billion a year” in debt. The company has also adjusted its inflation and interest rate assumptions. Regulated utilities are able to claw back certain financing costs over time via price controls, but the timing can be crucial. The debt at the holding-company level—above the operating subsidiaries—adds another layer. StockAnalysis
Prediction markets aren’t leading the action, but they help explain why rate-sensitive names are struggling to catch a break. On Polymarket, traders were betting there was an 83% likelihood the Bank of England would stand pat in June. Another market pegged the odds of a Bank Rate hike happening in 2026 around 64%–65%, though trading volumes there are thin. The Bank’s latest move? A hold at 3.75%, with eight votes for no change and one pushing for a bump to 4%.
Which brings us to today’s chart—it’s more than lines and numbers. The market’s weighing whether National Grid can juggle its ambitions as a growth utility with its reputation as a defensive income play, all while higher borrowing costs linger. On the U.S. front, there’s plenty in the mix: New England customer refunds, storm expenses, and ongoing rate-case negotiations in New York and Massachusetts. The American side delivers steady returns, though not without its headaches.
Tomorrow’s guidance and Q&A could be the real catalyst. Bulls want to see the dividend hold steady, no unexpected funding headlines, and management standing firm on that £70 billion build-out—anything less risks shaking their belief in the stock’s regulated-growth profile. But if returns start looking squeezed by capex, politics, weather, or rates, bears get a clean narrative: the grid’s a genuine play, but building it just keeps getting pricier.
