London, May 8, 2026, 19:04 BST
- National Grid’s distribution arm has published its 2026 Network Development Plan, a 10-year map of where local grid capacity may need work.
- The update lands days before full-year results and after JPMorgan trimmed its price target while keeping an “overweight” call.
- Shares recovered slightly on Friday, but investors are watching U.S. storm costs, refund charges and the pace of UK grid spending.
National Grid’s Distribution System Operator has launched its 2026 Network Development Plan, giving local authorities, developers and flexibility providers a clearer map of where the electricity distribution network may need upgrades over the next decade. The plan was published as investors prepare for National Grid plc’s full-year results next week and weigh the cost of a much larger grid build-out.
The timing matters. Britain’s networks are entering the RIIO-3 price-control period, the five-year regulatory regime that sets how much monopoly network operators can earn and spend from April 2026 to March 2031. Ofgem says RIIO stands for “Revenues = Incentives + Innovation + Outputs”; in plain English, it is the rulebook for funding grid investment while limiting what customers pay. Ofgem
For National Grid, that rulebook underpins a step-up in spending. The company said in March it had accepted RIIO-T3 terms for its UK Electricity Transmission business and set a five-year framework to FY31 that includes at least £70 billion of cumulative capital investment, around 10% asset growth and underlying earnings-per-share growth of 8% to 10% from an FY26 baseline.
The new distribution plan is narrower than that group-wide framework, but it points to the same pressure point: power demand is becoming harder to forecast as electric vehicles, heat pumps, battery storage, data centres and local generation change how the grid is used. National Grid DSO said the plan is meant to show future demand growth, identify network constraints and set out whether solutions should come from flexibility services, reinforcement or operational changes.
Oliver Spink, head of system planning at National Grid DSO, said the 2026 plan showed National Grid Electricity Distribution’s commitment to “unlocking economic growth” through more transparent and responsive network planning. He also said opening network data in a more usable way should help infrastructure development match regional and community needs. theenergyst.com – Latest energy news
The market reaction around National Grid has been more cautious than the planning language. National Grid shares rose 0.41% to 1,278.60 pence on Friday, after falling 1.91% to 1,273.40 pence on Thursday, according to Investing.com historical data.
JPMorgan lowered its price target on National Grid to 1,440 pence from 1,450 pence while keeping an “overweight” rating, TheFly reported through TipRanks. MarketScreener separately reported that JPMorgan analyst Pavan Mahbubani had confirmed a positive recommendation on the stock this week. TipRanks
National Grid’s next test comes on May 14, when Chief Executive Zoë Yujnovich and Chief Financial Officer Andy Agg are due to present full-year 2025/26 results. In a pre-close statement last month, the company said performance for the year ended March 31 was in line with expectations, but flagged an estimated 1 pence per share hit to underlying EPS from U.S. customer refund charges tied to a Federal Energy Regulatory Commission judgement and higher-than-expected U.S. storm costs.
The competitive backdrop is also tightening. SSE’s SSEN Transmission, another major UK grid operator, accepted Ofgem’s RIIO-T3 final determination in March and called the settlement investable and deliverable overall; Ofgem’s RIIO-3 documents also cover Scottish Power Transmission alongside National Grid Electricity Transmission and Scottish Hydro Electric Transmission.
The risk is execution. National Grid’s plan depends on regulatory recovery, customer demand, supply-chain delivery and faster build-out across both Britain and the U.S. Northeast. Storms, U.S. rate decisions, refund charges or planning delays could still eat into earnings even if the long-term investment case remains intact.
Yujnovich said in March that National Grid was expanding investment to at least £70 billion by FY31, with the focus on disciplined execution and regulatory frameworks that recognise the role of networks. Next week’s results will show how much room the company has to fund that promise while keeping investors, regulators and bill payers onside.
