London, May 8, 2026, 19:04 BST
- National Grid’s distribution business rolled out its 2026 Network Development Plan—essentially, a decade-long look at potential local grid capacity improvements.
- Arriving just ahead of full-year results, the update follows JPMorgan’s move to cut its price target, though the firm stuck with an “overweight” rating.
- Shares clawed back some ground Friday, though investors remain focused on U.S. storm-related expenses, refund charges, and how quickly the UK grid is spending.
National Grid’s Distribution System Operator rolled out its 2026 Network Development Plan, laying out which sections of the electricity distribution network could require upgrades in the coming ten years—a move aimed at giving local authorities, developers and flexibility providers better visibility. The timing lands just ahead of National Grid plc’s full-year results, due next week, as investors assess the price tag on expanding the grid at scale.
The timing is crucial. Britain’s power networks are about to enter RIIO-3, a five-year price-control stretch dictating what monopoly operators can earn or invest from April 2026 through March 2031. Ofgem spells out the acronym as “Revenues = Incentives + Innovation + Outputs”; in short, this is the framework that decides who pays what, and how much gets plowed into the grid. Ofgem
National Grid is pressing ahead with higher spending, anchored by that rulebook. Back in March, the company agreed to RIIO-T3 terms for its UK Electricity Transmission arm, laying out a five-year plan through FY31. The numbers: at least £70 billion in total capital investment, targeted asset growth of about 10%, and a projected 8% to 10% increase in underlying earnings per share, using FY26 as the starting point.
This new distribution plan, a tighter focus than the broader group strategy, zeroes in on a familiar strain: predicting power demand has grown tough as EVs, heat pumps, batteries, data centres, and distributed generation reshape grid dynamics. According to National Grid DSO, the document aims to map out how demand might grow, flag network bottlenecks, and clarify whether those pinch points call for flexibility measures, upgrades, or tweaks in operations.
Oliver Spink, who heads system planning at National Grid DSO, called the 2026 plan an example of National Grid Electricity Distribution’s drive to “unlock” economic growth—he pointed to the move toward clearer, more adaptive network planning. Making network data easier to use, Spink added, should allow infrastructure projects to better align with what regions and communities actually need. theenergyst.com – Latest energy news
Traders took a more reserved approach to National Grid than its optimistic plans suggested. On Friday, National Grid shares edged up 0.41% to 1,278.60 pence, following Thursday’s 1.91% dip to 1,273.40 pence, Investing.com historical data shows.
JPMorgan trimmed its price target for National Grid to 1,440 pence from 1,450 pence but stuck with its “overweight” call, according to TheFly via TipRanks. Over at MarketScreener, JPMorgan analyst Pavan Mahbubani reiterated his positive stance on the shares this week. TipRanks
National Grid faces its next hurdle on May 14, when Chief Executive Zoë Yujnovich and CFO Andy Agg are set to deliver the company’s full-year 2025/26 results. In last month’s pre-close update, management confirmed the year to March 31 tracked with expectations, though they flagged an estimated 1 pence per share drag on underlying EPS. The hit comes from U.S. customer refunds linked to a Federal Energy Regulatory Commission ruling, and unexpectedly steep U.S. storm costs.
Competition is getting stiffer. Back in March, SSE’s SSEN Transmission—one of the UK’s main grid players—signed off on Ofgem’s RIIO-T3 final determination, describing the package as both “investable and deliverable.” The RIIO-3 framework from Ofgem doesn’t just affect SSE: it also includes Scottish Power Transmission, National Grid Electricity Transmission, and Scottish Hydro Electric Transmission. SSE
Execution remains the sticking point. National Grid is hinging a lot on regulatory sign-off, customer appetite, supply chains staying on track, and quicker expansion on both sides of the Atlantic—Britain and the U.S. Northeast. Earnings are still vulnerable: a bad storm, a tough U.S. rate call, refund hits, or planning holdups could all take a bite, long-term investment story or not.
Back in March, Yujnovich laid out plans for National Grid to lift investment to at least £70 billion by FY31, emphasizing strict execution and the need for regulatory setups that value network operators. The company’s results due next week will make clear just how much financial headroom is left to balance those investment ambitions with the demands of investors, regulators, and customers.
