New York, Feb 23, 2026, 14:23 EST — Regular session
U.S. natural gas prices edged lower Monday, as the March Henry Hub contract shed 5.4 cents to settle at $2.993 per mmBtu on the New York Mercantile Exchange. April lost 5.5 cents, finishing at $2.929. The March contract wraps up on Wednesday. (Barchart)
This market’s focus remains fixed on weather—fundamentals take a back seat. Cold snaps can quickly squeeze demand, sure, but unless production drops or storage keeps depleting at a winter clip, those effects tend to fade fast.
Monday saw futures rise about 1%, lifted by gas flows to LNG export plants running just shy of record levels, plus a bump in demand projections for the coming two weeks, according to Reuters. LSEG pegged average Lower 48 gas production at 108.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) for February so far. Demand, including exports, is expected to slip from 137.5 bcfd this week to 130.3 bcfd next week, with most of the U.S. hovering near seasonal norms through at least March 10. Flows to the nine major U.S. LNG export terminals averaged 18.6 bcfd this month, Reuters reported. Meanwhile, QatarEnergy and Exxon Mobil’s Golden Pass project continued pulling in gas as it readied for its first LNG output. (BOE Report)
West Texas cash gas prices painted a stark picture. Spot natural gas at the Waha hub in the Permian Basin closed at negative $4.56 per mmBtu for Monday—marking a dozen days running with prices below zero, Reuters reported. That’s the fallout from pipeline bottlenecks keeping supply stuck in the region. “We expect Permian gas production to increase in the second half of 2026,” Bank of America analysts said, citing new pipeline capacity expected later this year. (BOE Report)
When prices dip below zero, producers are essentially forking over cash just to offload the associated gas that surfaces with oil—a clear indicator of limited takeaway options in the region. That kind of local oversupply sometimes bleeds into wider sentiment, regardless of what the national benchmark does in response to weather.
Bears face a tricky backdrop: weather patterns have been flip-flopping all winter. A sudden cold snap in early March—or a surprise outage at production fields, pipelines, or export plants—could send prompt-month prices spiking fast.
If temperatures climb and supplies hold steady, the front end stays heavy, bringing storage concerns to the forefront again. March’s contract is almost done, so traders could pivot to April fast—expect sharper swings within sessions.
Coming up, the U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its weekly natural gas storage numbers Thursday, Feb. 26, with a 10:30 a.m. Eastern drop. That report is key; market players want a read on whether stockpiles are shrinking or holding up as the heating season winds down into late March. (U.S. Energy Information Administration)
